{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b69bd94e-4ace-4bb3-a3f2-049615ce92a6", "symbol": "STAR-B", "name": "Starbreeze AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.534, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.6, "architecture_energy": 8.677, "architecture_maturity": 9.13, "architecture_confidence": 65.171, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.02, "rotation_up": 33.48, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 44.25, "rotation_down": 33.16, "downward_expansion": 37.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.096273, 0.094611, 0.099012, 0.099164 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0991, "trend_reference": 0.09874, "distance_from_trend": 0.003646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.253658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.609317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.687995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.047569, "excess_performance": -0.013926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.609317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6607107, "relative_activity": 0.61722, "balance": 0.322074, "dry_up": 0.588394, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104324, "annualized_volatility": 0.634191, "from_high_reference": -0.5045, "from_low_reference": 0.25443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09874, "fair_value_reference": 0.253658, "structural_low": 0.079, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.052577, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.059251, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.302953, "worst_return": -0.47987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.21319, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.197771, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.813902, "worst_return": -0.523276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.340388, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.268813, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.160869, "worst_return": -0.724569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.272628, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.472392, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.153029, "worst_return": -0.527638, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037864, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08998, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.089, "volume": 4811239, "typical_volume": 10809347.6, "trend": 0.0997, "fair_value": 0.273793, "relative_strength": -33.918367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.997894, "energy": 39.798992, "activity_lines": [ 0.091327, 0.093844, 0.100122, 0.099625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0895, "volume": 5385303, "typical_volume": 10626587.35, "trend": 0.099317, "fair_value": 0.267738, "relative_strength": -33.252318, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.248734, "energy": 37.549024, "activity_lines": [ 0.090627, 0.092513, 0.09909, 0.098967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1024, "volume": 8390484, "typical_volume": 10664607.75, "trend": 0.09913, "fair_value": 0.260472, "relative_strength": -23.190285, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.395043, "energy": 9.69538, "activity_lines": [ 0.094327, 0.09382, 0.099261, 0.099166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0991, "volume": 6607107, "typical_volume": 10704627.25, "trend": 0.09874, "fair_value": 0.253658, "relative_strength": -25.687995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.599776, "energy": 8.676761, "activity_lines": [ 0.096273, 0.094611, 0.099012, 0.099164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }