{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b69f1e66-0f66-4902-9001-d1162b19f9df", "symbol": "SESG", "name": "SES S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.737, "architecture_energy": 41.348, "architecture_maturity": 53.096, "architecture_confidence": 76.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.66, "rotation_up": 17.12, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 53.85, "rotation_down": 64.57, "downward_expansion": 44.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.28, 6.825, 7.243907, 7.076105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.465, "trend_reference": 6.841555, "distance_from_trend": -0.201205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.890992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.00952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148844, "excess_performance": -0.202156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11736, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.497372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.469679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7015894, "relative_activity": 1.908267, "balance": 0.529612, "dry_up": 1.689001, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.209867, "annualized_volatility": 0.603001, "from_high_reference": -0.447422, "from_low_reference": 0.17183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.841555, "fair_value_reference": 4.890992, "structural_low": 5.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020556, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.017205, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.108794, "worst_return": -0.291768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004601, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249486, "worst_return": -0.288981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081254, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.073344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332151, "worst_return": -0.210654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141733, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.194223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045226, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223696, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 5.85, "volume": 9839606, "typical_volume": 3489177.9, "trend": 6.854988, "fair_value": 4.888876, "relative_strength": -11.42727, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.845059, "energy": 17.588302, "activity_lines": [ 6.871333, 7.213, 7.409921, 7.165781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.465, "volume": 7015894, "typical_volume": 3676579.0, "trend": 6.841555, "fair_value": 4.890992, "relative_strength": -19.00952, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.737258, "energy": 41.348109, "activity_lines": [ 6.28, 6.825, 7.243907, 7.076105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }