{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6a05642-548b-4ceb-b04f-8e359c84e2a0", "symbol": "603799", "name": "Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.783, "architecture_energy": 69.199, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 18.71, "upward_expansion": 13.93, "deceleration": 46.04, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 87.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.875333, 42.717999, 48.390867, 52.751699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.009998, "trend_reference": 59.029264, "distance_from_trend": -0.254438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.961193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.270801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383463, "excess_performance": -0.34026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.543819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383463, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 429065907, "relative_activity": 1.524776, "balance": 1.210012, "dry_up": 1.236938, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11362, "annualized_volatility": 0.522488, "from_high_reference": -0.459771, "from_low_reference": 0.236931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.029264, "fair_value_reference": 39.961193, "structural_low": 35.580002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.050663, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.024844, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.296673, "worst_return": -0.251553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.07239, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.03668, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.382058, "worst_return": -0.295052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.157648, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.172723, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.339365, "worst_return": -0.329064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.134264, "energy": 87.961671, "activity_lines": [ 40.626, 44.472363, 50.722442, 55.110859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.91, "volume": 260525381, "typical_volume": 276701053.3, "trend": 59.818086, "fair_value": 39.978814, "relative_strength": -29.468244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.975338, "energy": 84.856171, "activity_lines": [ 39.838, 43.05, 49.298685, 53.771576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.009998, "volume": 429065907, "typical_volume": 281395957.55, "trend": 59.029264, "fair_value": 39.961193, "relative_strength": -24.270801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.78259, "energy": 69.199035, "activity_lines": [ 40.875333, 42.717999, 48.390867, 52.751699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }