{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6a58631-db6e-4721-b982-05b6e2f7cc29", "symbol": "LPRO", "name": "Open Lending Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 15, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 85.012, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 79.423, "composite_score": 86.561, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.295, "architecture_energy": 83.055, "architecture_maturity": 43.749, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_age_weeks": 9, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.295, "energy": 83.055, "maturity": 43.749, "confidence": 96, "confirmation": 99.478, "age_weeks": 9, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 67.81, "upward_expansion": 97.78, "deceleration": 40.55, "rotation_down": 23.42, "downward_expansion": 19.78 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 3.138, "10": 3.026364, "20": 2.612952, "30": 2.321011 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 0.825397, "10": 1.633424, "20": 1.626592, "30": 1.215496 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 3.121946, "fan_width_change_4": 0.468019, "fan_width_percentile": 0.932692, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 2.350853, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -0.191634, "price_acceptance": 1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.007643, "accepted_above": 1.0, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 85/100." }, "latest_close": 3.14, "sma_30": 2.032, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.545276, "sma_30_slope": 0.236511, "fair_value": 4.32133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273372, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.370375, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 46.610167, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 60.65456, "range_position_52": 0.994937, "returns": { "13": 0.774011, "26": 0.75419, "52": 0.453704 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.668869, "52": 0.238869 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 44.24, "2": 44.0, "3": 25.76, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.545276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.236511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.370375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.466102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.606546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.75419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.106179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5710026, "ratio_20": 0.59667, "up_down_ratio_13": 4.106179, "dry_up_ratio": 0.921031, "accumulation_weeks": 3, "distribution_weeks": 1 }, "base": { "high_26": 3.15, "low_26": 1.175, "depth": 0.626984, "compression": 0.572152, "breakout_distance": -0.003175 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.083341, "annualized_volatility": 0.776793, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.003175, "advance_from_52_low": 1.67234 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 3.15, "trend_reference": 2.032, "fair_value_reference": 4.32133, "support_reference": 1.175, "range_low": 1.175, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the 26-week range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while the 30-week average falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "chart_path": [ { "week": "2023-08-11", "open": 10.25, "high": 10.48, "low": 6.6, "close": 8.27, "volume": 6326734, "sma_30": 8.814, "fair_value_history": 21.231955, "mansfield_rs": -10.6882, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.611558, "architecture_energy": 16.622394, "activity_5": 9.966667, "activity_10": 10.236, "activity_20": 9.944333, "activity_30": 9.359505 }, { "week": "2023-08-18", "open": 8.23, "high": 8.555, "low": 8.08, "close": 8.51, "volume": 2877357, "sma_30": 8.811333, "fair_value_history": 21.161827, 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"activity_10": 2.954182, "activity_20": 2.519048, "activity_30": 2.246129 }, { "week": "2026-07-31", "open": 3.15, "high": 3.15, "low": 3.14, "close": 3.14, "volume": 5710026, "sma_30": 2.032, "fair_value_history": 4.32133, "mansfield_rs": 46.610167, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.295109, "architecture_energy": 83.055107, "activity_5": 3.138, "activity_10": 3.026364, "activity_20": 2.612952, "activity_30": 2.321011 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.087719, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.071407, "stage_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.473934, "worst_return": -0.35545, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.206311, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.241526, "stage_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.779661, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.305882, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.420741, "stage_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.488152, "worst_return": -0.564541, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"return": 0.177043 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "weeks": 2, "return": -0.094937 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "weeks": 47, "return": -0.65764 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "weeks": 2, "return": -0.104265 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "weeks": 12, "return": -0.044693 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 15, "return": 0.774011, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017746, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.473934, "worst_return": -0.241533, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.190247, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.220261, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183513, "worst_return": -0.196981, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.445931, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.530627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.378803, "worst_return": -0.51306, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.564956, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.656963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.36212, "worst_return": -0.767793, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.152727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-19", "weeks": 13, "return": 0.233871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-17", "weeks": 26, "return": -0.189274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.224806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "weeks": 4, "return": -0.166084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "weeks": 19, "return": -0.440835, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "weeks": 2, "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "weeks": 13, "return": -0.147982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "weeks": 8, "return": 0.104712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "weeks": 4, "return": -0.280423, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "weeks": 11, "return": 0.212329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 9, "return": 0.488152, "active": true } ] } }