{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6a71ac5-f7b0-4ad3-a043-f22b0621fa2c", "symbol": "VASWANI", "name": "Vaswani Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.579, "architecture_energy": 57.862, "architecture_maturity": 8.803, "architecture_confidence": 86.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 11.02, "upward_expansion": 12.2, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 70.4, "downward_expansion": 90.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.349334, 53.559818, 54.948047, 55.217785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 52.139999, "trend_reference": 55.470333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.707051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.147844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048019, "excess_performance": -0.00431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164331, "relative_activity": 0.987601, "balance": 0.68411, "dry_up": 0.580632, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074754, "annualized_volatility": 0.359591, "from_high_reference": -0.255036, "from_low_reference": 0.073281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.470333, "fair_value_reference": 45.707051, "structural_low": 49.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022872, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.358904, "worst_return": -0.040382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.139726, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.1015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220191, "worst_return": 0.048264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.353542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.260295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542701, "worst_return": 0.164384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.967902, "energy": 24.00558, "activity_lines": [ 55.164667, 56.161636, 56.190809, 56.16858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.07, "volume": 49185, "typical_volume": 205649.85, "trend": 56.150666, "fair_value": 45.123461, "relative_strength": -4.546156, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.114095, "energy": 38.902943, "activity_lines": [ 54.187333, 55.555818, 55.915238, 55.953483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.52, "volume": 89832, "typical_volume": 181143.55, "trend": 55.887666, "fair_value": 45.325192, "relative_strength": -3.363766, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.038973, "energy": 54.488532, "activity_lines": [ 53.456, 54.92, 55.627381, 55.719247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.580002, "volume": 83107, "typical_volume": 171003.5, "trend": 55.605, "fair_value": 45.512243, "relative_strength": -7.427676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.963581, "energy": 60.518619, "activity_lines": [ 52.745334, 54.168, 55.260476, 55.441333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.139999, "volume": 164331, "typical_volume": 166394.15, "trend": 55.470333, "fair_value": 45.707051, "relative_strength": -7.147844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.579299, "energy": 57.862101, "activity_lines": [ 52.349334, 53.559818, 54.948047, 55.217785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }