{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6ac745f-d9d9-4597-98b4-f499bd4739f0", "symbol": "SXLP", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Staples Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.971, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.176, "architecture_energy": 21.811, "architecture_maturity": 32.916, "architecture_confidence": 51.187, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 43.09, "upward_expansion": 66.63, "deceleration": 59.2, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 7.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.029266, 40.036727, 39.811476, 39.698456 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.791, "trend_reference": 39.528733, "distance_from_trend": 0.006635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.939961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.86243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014074, "excess_performance": -0.130736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057828, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14072, "relative_activity": 1.147929, "balance": 0.805636, "dry_up": 1.210803, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028478, "annualized_volatility": 0.156044, "from_high_reference": -0.050311, "from_low_reference": 0.133421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.528733, "fair_value_reference": 36.939961, "structural_low": 37.591999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00097, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.006347, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.100798, "worst_return": -0.07228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027192, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.027305, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.121324, "worst_return": -0.07565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065568, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004147, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.163576, "worst_return": -0.083268, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 40.219867, 39.985201, 39.6851, 39.566996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.883999, "volume": 8629, "typical_volume": 10324.7, "trend": 39.258567, "fair_value": 36.861897, "relative_strength": -5.329939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.47384, "energy": 30.262246, "activity_lines": [ 40.147867, 39.987273, 39.721019, 39.616774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.141998, "volume": 32720, "typical_volume": 11947.75, "trend": 39.408367, "fair_value": 36.901955, "relative_strength": -5.27401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.103852, "energy": 27.262862, "activity_lines": [ 40.133733, 40.045654, 39.78219, 39.67377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.791, "volume": 14072, "typical_volume": 12258.6, "trend": 39.528733, "fair_value": 36.939961, "relative_strength": -6.86243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.176433, "energy": 21.811149, "activity_lines": [ 40.029266, 40.036727, 39.811476, 39.698456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }