{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6b6dfae-38f1-4fcc-8fd6-9ecc8c1656f9", "symbol": "XNOV", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY ENHANCE & MODERATE BUFFER ETF - NOVEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.33, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.431, "architecture_energy": 76.156, "architecture_maturity": 43.375, "architecture_confidence": 66.976, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.71, "rotation_up": 70.87, "upward_expansion": 90.85, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 25.15, "downward_expansion": 12.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.900667, 39.755407, 39.505667, 39.146811 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 40.115, "trend_reference": 38.732733, "distance_from_trend": 0.035687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.076083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.915845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051438, "excess_performance": -0.074187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035687, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013224, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.090877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17004, "relative_activity": 0.353511, "balance": 0.090877, "dry_up": 0.189973, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005853, "annualized_volatility": 0.051127, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.113746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.732733, "fair_value_reference": 35.076083, "structural_low": 36.8686, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006806, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.003642, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.018536, "worst_return": -0.011082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002736, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.033747, "worst_return": -0.007761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043384, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.062892, "worst_return": 0.045031, "sufficient": false }, { 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35.005634, "relative_strength": -2.903084, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.746041, "energy": 87.983394, "activity_lines": [ 39.686267, 39.585876, 39.301981, 38.969439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.9, "volume": 4627, "typical_volume": 47647.9, "trend": 38.66607, "fair_value": 35.040346, "relative_strength": -3.313597, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.376051, "energy": 91.388792, "activity_lines": [ 39.777967, 39.656505, 39.399223, 39.053332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.115, "volume": 17004, "typical_volume": 48100.3, "trend": 38.732733, "fair_value": 35.076083, "relative_strength": -5.915845, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.430565, "energy": 76.155647, "activity_lines": [ 39.900667, 39.755407, 39.505667, 39.146811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }