{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6ba44bf-2cc8-4359-a661-9dbf5e901fa5", "symbol": "CPANEL", "name": "CPanel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.841, "architecture_energy": 63.153, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.542, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 50.04, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.203636, 1.274333, 1.400108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.21, "trend_reference": 1.577333, "distance_from_trend": -0.232883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.746548, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.676053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.379487, "excess_performance": -0.571812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.456761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.379487, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96300, "relative_activity": 0.382773, "balance": 0.47481, "dry_up": 0.557764, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057216, "annualized_volatility": 0.408035, "from_high_reference": -0.555147, "from_low_reference": 0.043103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.577333, "fair_value_reference": 3.746548, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.050459, "positive_rate": 0.257143, "directional_follow_through": 0.742857, "median_excess_return": -0.051103, "regime_survival": 0.942857, "best_return": 0.214953, "worst_return": -0.23, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.113514, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.083327, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.29902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.229412, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138755, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.072, "worst_return": -0.324324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.221333, 1.269091, 1.414429, 1.555247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.18, "volume": 72600, "typical_volume": 281230.0, "trend": 1.71, "fair_value": 3.914985, "relative_strength": -49.728867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.464893, "energy": 89.996968, "activity_lines": [ 1.204667, 1.241273, 1.377095, 1.518602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.2, "volume": 273100, "typical_volume": 284095.0, "trend": 1.675333, "fair_value": 3.871862, "relative_strength": -48.815596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.653099, "energy": 84.161043, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.224, 1.345762, 1.485699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 145200, "typical_volume": 274170.0, "trend": 1.642333, "fair_value": 3.829427, "relative_strength": -47.900038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.152807, "energy": 83.593692, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.214364, 1.319095, 1.455677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.18, "volume": 46700, "typical_volume": 252490.0, "trend": 1.609, "fair_value": 3.786489, "relative_strength": -47.987426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.274305, "energy": 67.02169, "activity_lines": [ 1.192667, 1.204, 1.293333, 1.425849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.21, "volume": 96300, "typical_volume": 251585.0, "trend": 1.577333, "fair_value": 3.746548, "relative_strength": -45.676053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.840596, "energy": 63.152644, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.203636, 1.274333, 1.400108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }