{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6bc40d7-1601-41b8-9cb4-7e032dbeee24", "symbol": "ZYME", "name": "Zymeworks Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.072, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.53, "architecture_energy": 37.656, "architecture_maturity": 22.305, "architecture_confidence": 58.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.38, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 20.05, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 53.69, "downward_expansion": 52.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.22, 23.776727, 24.302762, 24.385183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.54, "trend_reference": 24.238333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.848269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.58537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.89324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036092, "excess_performance": -0.151362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.58537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036092, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2558334, "relative_activity": 0.879933, "balance": 0.90845, "dry_up": 0.703306, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095925, "annualized_volatility": 0.351193, "from_high_reference": -0.208739, "from_low_reference": 0.984823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.238333, "fair_value_reference": 14.848269, "structural_low": 21.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039745, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.352542, "worst_return": -0.297443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302083, "worst_return": -0.351016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1734, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.165536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.181891, "worst_return": -0.683691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034993, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.151424, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.854167, "worst_return": -0.835779, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19191, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", 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after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.444337, "energy": 17.375958, "activity_lines": [ 25.083333, 24.679091, 24.960286, 24.721355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.19, "volume": 1916433, "typical_volume": 3251402.0, "trend": 24.515667, "fair_value": 14.550128, "relative_strength": 0.079074, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.255952, "energy": 15.769793, "activity_lines": [ 24.989333, 24.623455, 24.89581, 24.693806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.86, "volume": 1968640, "typical_volume": 3102963.75, "trend": 24.382, "fair_value": 14.650064, "relative_strength": -4.406719, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.902727, "energy": 6.751908, "activity_lines": [ 24.364667, 24.320545, 24.700381, 24.586989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.94, "volume": 1735817, "typical_volume": 2945117.05, "trend": 24.226, "fair_value": 14.743333, "relative_strength": -9.210471, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.149898, "energy": 32.968639, "activity_lines": [ 23.452, 23.869818, 24.423143, 24.429441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.54, "volume": 2558334, "typical_volume": 2907418.25, "trend": 24.238333, "fair_value": 14.848269, "relative_strength": -7.89324, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.530302, "energy": 37.655932, "activity_lines": [ 23.22, 23.776727, 24.302762, 24.385183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }