{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6bdd54f-203e-4dcb-a3d6-535672a36cda", "symbol": "GENI", "name": "Generic Sweden AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.203, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.964, "architecture_energy": 13.627, "architecture_maturity": 28.496, "architecture_confidence": 52.775, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.62, "rotation_up": 34.28, "upward_expansion": 31.52, "deceleration": 61.53, "rotation_down": 33.52, "downward_expansion": 23.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.796665, 38.690908, 38.409938, 37.909434 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.849998, "trend_reference": 38.253997, "distance_from_trend": 0.041721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.338783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.437129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087477, "excess_performance": -0.148971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154371, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78667, "relative_activity": 1.067016, "balance": 0.895048, "dry_up": 0.835165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060216, "annualized_volatility": 0.325611, "from_high_reference": -0.244809, "from_low_reference": 0.242121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.253997, "fair_value_reference": 45.338783, "structural_low": 32.082226, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.042241, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030265, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.140802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099282, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263587, "worst_return": -0.482523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115004, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.14845, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.355353, "worst_return": -0.43465, 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0.079121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052684, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140802, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002516, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.941708, "volume": 61987, "typical_volume": 48351.5, "trend": 38.067672, "fair_value": 46.113975, "relative_strength": 12.036192, "stage": 1, 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"down", "direction": -10.486207, "energy": 9.497054, "activity_lines": [ 38.849999, 38.904958, 37.830774, 37.966703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.299999, "volume": 62777, "typical_volume": 84441.95, "trend": 38.894944, "fair_value": 45.376568, "relative_strength": -17.235561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.454496, "energy": 8.912619, "activity_lines": [ 38.753332, 38.792727, 37.972283, 37.917595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.700001, "volume": 45871, "typical_volume": 80667.5, "trend": 38.684767, "fair_value": 45.371504, "relative_strength": -18.913621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.080503, "energy": 11.647507, "activity_lines": [ 38.463333, 38.544545, 38.045965, 37.840502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.349998, "volume": 58979, "typical_volume": 76561.15, "trend": 38.446776, "fair_value": 45.356707, "relative_strength": -17.802165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.903536, "energy": 4.549951, "activity_lines": [ 38.429999, 38.463636, 38.161869, 37.818904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.849998, "volume": 78667, "typical_volume": 73726.15, "trend": 38.253997, "fair_value": 45.338783, "relative_strength": -15.437129, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.964369, "energy": 13.627141, "activity_lines": [ 38.796665, 38.690908, 38.409938, 37.909434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }