{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6bff327-4c9b-45c9-a3bd-ec2ace7a50db", "symbol": "AOD", "name": "abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.136, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.692, "architecture_energy": 72.553, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.687, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.43, "rotation_up": 72.03, "upward_expansion": 93.45, "deceleration": 40.22, "rotation_down": 16.21, "downward_expansion": 15.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.51225, 10.396443, 10.279864, 10.114625 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.66, "trend_reference": 9.936728, "distance_from_trend": 0.072788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.628825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.624259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096798, "excess_performance": -0.028827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006243, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.342722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2244643, "relative_activity": 1.042916, "balance": 2.342722, "dry_up": 1.019204, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027851, "annualized_volatility": 0.218456, "from_high_reference": -0.008372, "from_low_reference": 0.307303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.936728, "fair_value_reference": 7.628825, "structural_low": 8.590992, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.016259, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004495, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.097336, "worst_return": -0.081045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019055, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.018038, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.131308, "worst_return": -0.141873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071979, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022744, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.212149, "worst_return": -0.176402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.306486, "energy": 53.21688, "activity_lines": [ 10.328506, 10.277726, 10.160065, 10.021137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.54, "volume": 2579200, "typical_volume": 2154672.4, "trend": 9.897406, "fair_value": 7.598054, "relative_strength": 3.097134, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.673451, "energy": 63.831325, "activity_lines": [ 10.41525, 10.328374, 10.217486, 10.065425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.66, "volume": 2244643, "typical_volume": 2152276.65, "trend": 9.936728, "fair_value": 7.628825, "relative_strength": 0.624259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.691621, "energy": 72.553321, "activity_lines": [ 10.51225, 10.396443, 10.279864, 10.114625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }