{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6e0d87c-12b4-4b8a-9188-9480817e7c89", "symbol": "LIC", "name": "Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.916, "architecture_energy": 17.707, "architecture_maturity": 53.904, "architecture_confidence": 92.853, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.24, "rotation_up": 30.21, "upward_expansion": 61.25, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 31.91, "downward_expansion": 20.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.121144, 1.118398, 1.131048, 1.114297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.086427, "distance_from_trend": 0.049311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.930029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.247421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128713, "excess_performance": 0.100439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08406, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.561048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11317, "relative_activity": 0.178069, "balance": 4.561048, "dry_up": 1.27205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025996, "annualized_volatility": 0.196607, "from_high_reference": -0.065574, "from_low_reference": 0.212766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.086427, "fair_value_reference": 0.930029, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008864, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.018292, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.106488, "worst_return": -0.096385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061856, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.087611, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.25641, "worst_return": -0.107199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045502, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413765, "worst_return": -0.151839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 74442.65, "trend": 1.068903, "fair_value": 0.920258, "relative_strength": 1.805748, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.466282, "energy": 37.174359, "activity_lines": [ 1.106492, 1.140234, 1.129209, 1.103645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.088362, "volume": 160272, "typical_volume": 79151.95, "trend": 1.072849, "fair_value": 0.922554, "relative_strength": 2.119963, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.416122, "energy": 40.852305, "activity_lines": [ 1.092807, 1.128716, 1.127638, 1.1049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.097357, "volume": 137833, "typical_volume": 84702.15, "trend": 1.077094, "fair_value": 0.924907, "relative_strength": 2.021421, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.719569, "energy": 42.332611, "activity_lines": [ 1.089562, 1.119227, 1.126503, 1.106481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 13954, "typical_volume": 74485.5, "trend": 1.081761, "fair_value": 0.927468, "relative_strength": 6.428732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.111362, "energy": 22.863629, "activity_lines": [ 1.107374, 1.118267, 1.129061, 1.11054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 11317, "typical_volume": 63554.1, "trend": 1.086427, "fair_value": 0.930029, "relative_strength": 5.247421, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.916362, "energy": 17.706572, "activity_lines": [ 1.121144, 1.118398, 1.131048, 1.114297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }