{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6e1c9d4-a32b-4f25-9fd7-d619d549fdcd", "symbol": "SYNSAM", "name": "Synsam AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.465, "architecture_energy": 31.755, "architecture_maturity": 45.035, "architecture_confidence": 90.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.52, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 3.85, "deceleration": 53.22, "rotation_down": 39.65, "downward_expansion": 74.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.659999, 55.74909, 55.971131, 57.456078 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 55.700001, "trend_reference": 59.460119, "distance_from_trend": -0.063238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.458246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.044437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128143, "excess_performance": -0.189637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038145, "read": "Falling" 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50.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014909, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.012029, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.135945, "worst_return": -0.082463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038732, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005234, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.265625, "worst_return": -0.092652, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.1926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.070162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442708, "worst_return": -0.057508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 500359, "typical_volume": 1111195.15, "trend": 60.691509, "fair_value": 48.992493, "relative_strength": -14.812696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.336615, "energy": 27.864656, "activity_lines": [ 55.973332, 55.754545, 57.023369, 58.67144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.0, "volume": 462486, "typical_volume": 1045791.2, "trend": 60.388816, "fair_value": 49.10376, "relative_strength": -14.565881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.514217, "energy": 37.157102, "activity_lines": [ 55.546666, 55.72, 56.636241, 58.304246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.799999, "volume": 398649, "typical_volume": 1011104.65, "trend": 60.063275, "fair_value": 49.206231, "relative_strength": -15.986075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.121744, "energy": 38.45164, "activity_lines": [ 55.199999, 55.610909, 56.287178, 57.943677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.599998, "volume": 515375, "typical_volume": 977996.9, "trend": 59.794497, "fair_value": 49.332378, "relative_strength": -14.267057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.854069, "energy": 31.93569, "activity_lines": [ 55.633332, 55.783636, 56.1542, 57.72024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.700001, "volume": 497516, "typical_volume": 882956.6, "trend": 59.460119, "fair_value": 49.458246, "relative_strength": -17.044437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.46457, "energy": 31.755121, "activity_lines": [ 55.659999, 55.74909, 55.971131, 57.456078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }