{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6e21417-6589-41bd-9fbe-fc2b443e14fb", "symbol": "SMEU", "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.626, "architecture_energy": 79.955, "architecture_maturity": 35.527, "architecture_confidence": 86.042, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 66.5, "upward_expansion": 88.13, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 17.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 516.869995, 512.736364, 506.047739, 499.83828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 528.099976, "trend_reference": 493.974168, "distance_from_trend": 0.069084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 400.091519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.801893, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071251, "excess_performance": 0.020016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.897541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64, "relative_activity": 0.107455, "balance": 1.897541, "dry_up": 0.645987, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018346, "annualized_volatility": 0.176755, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.356269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 493.974168, "fair_value_reference": 400.091519, "structural_low": 439.049988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.000594, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": 0.000369, "regime_survival": 0.685714, "best_return": 0.083078, "worst_return": -0.109741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03432, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.001143, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099344, "worst_return": -0.105731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021733, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01395, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.130389, "worst_return": -0.032275, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 508.310004, 505.841822, 498.875479, 494.695593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 507.75, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 773.7, "trend": 490.859168, "fair_value": 397.545366, "relative_strength": 0.481831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.648583, "energy": 58.461934, "activity_lines": [ 508.416669, 506.75364, 500.52655, 495.866077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 516.700012, "volume": 1206, "typical_volume": 735.65, "trend": 492.371668, "fair_value": 398.775334, "relative_strength": 0.936433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.205706, "energy": 53.827743, "activity_lines": [ 511.246671, 508.858187, 502.870241, 497.533228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 528.099976, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 595.6, "trend": 493.974168, "fair_value": 400.091519, "relative_strength": 2.801893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.626293, "energy": 79.954971, "activity_lines": [ 516.869995, 512.736364, 506.047739, 499.83828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }