{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6e7efde-e487-4a70-b6fd-314a329a3beb", "symbol": "VA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific All Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.184, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.08, "architecture_energy": 26.023, "architecture_maturity": 64.577, "architecture_confidence": 84.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.65, "rotation_up": 25.48, "upward_expansion": 57.21, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 18.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.624001, 60.538298, 60.116871, 58.731151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.900002, "trend_reference": 56.930989, "distance_from_trend": 0.069716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.332152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.438623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.116227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132479, "excess_performance": 0.012058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.438623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031162, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132479, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30100, "relative_activity": 0.53659, "balance": 0.691558, "dry_up": 1.054907, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045657, "annualized_volatility": 0.284059, "from_high_reference": -0.068665, "from_low_reference": 0.383114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.930989, "fair_value_reference": 42.332152, "structural_low": 50.108855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016713, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.001751, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.082527, "worst_return": -0.011588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02747, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.006434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230512, "worst_return": -0.034978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039555, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0463, "worst_return": 0.039473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069926, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.619492, "energy": 22.68621, "activity_lines": [ 60.085333, 60.978376, 59.788097, 58.292755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.75, "volume": 73600, "typical_volume": 60950.0, "trend": 56.598262, "fair_value": 42.152855, "relative_strength": 2.843327, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.875592, "energy": 25.181717, "activity_lines": [ 59.365667, 60.556951, 59.867561, 58.453619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.900002, "volume": 30100, "typical_volume": 56095.0, "trend": 56.930989, "fair_value": 42.332152, "relative_strength": 3.116227, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.079887, "energy": 26.02273, "activity_lines": [ 59.624001, 60.538298, 60.116871, 58.731151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }