{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6ead542-8f55-4155-b85d-046db311b14b", "symbol": "600313", "name": "Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.064, "architecture_energy": 46.755, "architecture_maturity": 82.799, "architecture_confidence": 93.244, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.84, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 20.61, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 42.3, "downward_expansion": 70.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.564667, 5.512758, 5.872687, 6.305335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.76, "trend_reference": 6.756522, "distance_from_trend": -0.14749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.749716, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.83358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347678, "excess_performance": -0.304475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184028168, "relative_activity": 1.147752, "balance": 0.751001, "dry_up": 0.825113, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074207, "annualized_volatility": 0.37469, "from_high_reference": -0.412245, "from_low_reference": 0.152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.756522, "fair_value_reference": 6.749716, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.02627, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.019947, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.129573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01548, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.045876, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.263359, "worst_return": -0.20122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.232143, "worst_return": -0.204056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.83808, 6.456536, 6.752644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.25, "volume": 84606930, "typical_volume": 262841197.85, "trend": 6.900189, "fair_value": 6.848562, "relative_strength": -22.945668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.10981, "energy": 91.52193, "activity_lines": [ 5.386047, 5.674468, 6.294462, 6.642717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 115836929, "typical_volume": 248677212.3, "trend": 6.854522, "fair_value": 6.827344, "relative_strength": -17.031339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.830185, "energy": 88.462249, "activity_lines": [ 5.322667, 5.553743, 6.146673, 6.539479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.42, "volume": 132997532, "typical_volume": 207104653.45, "trend": 6.815522, "fair_value": 6.800934, "relative_strength": -15.902701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332038, "energy": 80.916703, "activity_lines": [ 5.338667, 5.486815, 6.02317, 6.44693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.64, "volume": 96324790, "typical_volume": 185915285.65, "trend": 6.779189, "fair_value": 6.776062, "relative_strength": -12.571841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.349697, "energy": 61.915873, "activity_lines": [ 5.443333, 5.483694, 5.936, 6.371089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.76, "volume": 184028168, "typical_volume": 160337886.7, "trend": 6.756522, "fair_value": 6.749716, "relative_strength": -12.83358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.064379, "energy": 46.754697, "activity_lines": [ 5.564667, 5.512758, 5.872687, 6.305335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }