{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b6f20080-deb4-44bf-acf9-15c33755d197",
    "symbol": "DAPP",
    "name": "VanEck Crypto& Blockchain Innovators ETF A USD Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 78.259,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -21.28,
    "architecture_energy": 30.192,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.252,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.231,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.46,
        "rotation_up": 14.65,
        "upward_expansion": 16.71,
        "deceleration": 59.72,
        "rotation_down": 62.81,
        "downward_expansion": 44.05
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.885067,
        11.332655,
        11.759686,
        11.478206
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 10.792,
    "trend_reference": 11.172633,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.034068,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.695888,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241046,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -19.670861,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.150165,
    "excess_performance": -0.020727,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034068,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017986,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.241046,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.337664,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196709,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.22378,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.150165,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.239164,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 160975,
      "relative_activity": 0.917146,
      "balance": 2.239164,
      "dry_up": 0.860409,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.113888,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.520932,
      "from_high_reference": -0.354082,
      "from_low_reference": 0.314334
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.172633,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.695888,
      "structural_low": 8.598,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.066703,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066977,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.293784,
        "worst_return": -0.312331,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.023969,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038184,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.195586,
        "worst_return": -0.452805,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.038685,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.103464,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.50941,
        "worst_return": -0.117934,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.469148,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.221232,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.803866,
        "worst_return": 0.134429,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.288684,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.309671,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.204127,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.654295,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.124517,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.112488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.272699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.192457,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.22525,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.096296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 11.166,
        "volume": 95959,
        "typical_volume": 266805.9,
        "trend": 11.177767,
        "fair_value": 8.000673,
        "relative_strength": -7.425492,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.79478,
        "energy": 21.620322,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.082867,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 12.728,
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        "typical_volume": 269494.7,
        "trend": 11.095367,
        "fair_value": 8.062276,
        "relative_strength": 2.707136,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 278040.05,
        "trend": 11.044767,
        "fair_value": 8.121099,
        "relative_strength": 2.824946,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.86657,
        "energy": 63.058027,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 284299.4,
        "trend": 11.0069,
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        "relative_strength": 2.633565,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.692479,
        "energy": 66.380095,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 285434.8,
        "trend": 10.975233,
        "fair_value": 8.244215,
        "relative_strength": 7.817914,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "energy": 83.264208,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 12.004,
        "volume": 78259,
        "typical_volume": 269964.35,
        "trend": 10.955633,
        "fair_value": 8.298404,
        "relative_strength": -5.672964,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.500717,
        "energy": 63.366112,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 13.066,
        "volume": 59997,
        "typical_volume": 255694.3,
        "trend": 11.0245,
        "fair_value": 8.359612,
        "relative_strength": -0.755841,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.524902,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 243985.05,
        "trend": 11.157767,
        "fair_value": 8.419061,
        "relative_strength": -0.215403,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 55.073456,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 12.24,
        "volume": 24156,
        "typical_volume": 211486.6,
        "trend": 11.1707,
        "fair_value": 8.469878,
        "relative_strength": -6.699785,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.760353,
        "energy": 37.778231,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.809867,
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          11.94959,
          11.518632
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 11.672,
        "volume": 8335,
        "typical_volume": 192486.5,
        "trend": 11.175633,
        "fair_value": 8.512128,
        "relative_strength": -13.370292,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.671465,
        "energy": 27.963761,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.396667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 11.538,
        "volume": 123053,
        "typical_volume": 188981.0,
        "trend": 11.185233,
        "fair_value": 8.548006,
        "relative_strength": -13.714504,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.152198,
        "energy": 19.248541,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.077333,
          12.420291,
          12.015738,
          11.574353
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.32,
        "volume": 174722,
        "typical_volume": 182450.7,
        "trend": 11.174033,
        "fair_value": 8.579968,
        "relative_strength": -21.230485,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.578638,
        "energy": 18.684323,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.383067,
          12.003455,
          11.911219,
          11.518531
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.518,
        "volume": 148727,
        "typical_volume": 178147.9,
        "trend": 11.2031,
        "fair_value": 8.619673,
        "relative_strength": -11.649943,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.821255,
        "energy": 20.670616,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.2712,
          11.848218,
          11.91681,
          11.540723
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.646,
        "volume": 119643,
        "typical_volume": 174122.25,
        "trend": 11.2039,
        "fair_value": 8.65674,
        "relative_strength": -18.64883,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.450727,
        "energy": 27.427469,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.000667,
          11.556873,
          11.832419,
          11.504781
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.792,
        "volume": 160975,
        "typical_volume": 175517.4,
        "trend": 11.172633,
        "fair_value": 8.695888,
        "relative_strength": -19.670861,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.279911,
        "energy": 30.192196,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.885067,
          11.332655,
          11.759686,
          11.478206
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}