{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6f57cfe-1b72-46de-8eab-99a074661dc4", "symbol": "DIS", "name": "d'Amico International Shipping S.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.993, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.642, "architecture_energy": 4.398, "architecture_maturity": 25.884, "architecture_confidence": 77.364, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 24.8, "upward_expansion": 42.31, "deceleration": 75.11, "rotation_down": 32.63, "downward_expansion": 38.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.298, 7.333455, 7.487717, 7.423996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.97, "trend_reference": 7.17484, "distance_from_trend": -0.02855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.749607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.860634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167226, "excess_performance": -0.003666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.46749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.627172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008606, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.629959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2148206, "relative_activity": 1.449317, "balance": 0.304548, "dry_up": 1.124213, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100265, "annualized_volatility": 0.515451, "from_high_reference": -0.248112, "from_low_reference": 1.048101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.17484, "fair_value_reference": 4.749607, "structural_low": 5.981088, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011791, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205555, "worst_return": -0.043896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.37622, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.334881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.619444, "worst_return": -0.123492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.338887, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.203751, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.316666, "worst_return": 0.189731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012638, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.372871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043998, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 4.696664, "relative_strength": 21.684384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.647007, "energy": 15.13008, "activity_lines": [ 7.482, 7.453, 7.572574, 7.422981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.21, "volume": 2161519, "typical_volume": 1946513.95, "trend": 7.124, "fair_value": 4.72407, "relative_strength": 8.132666, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.082753, "energy": 7.3653, "activity_lines": [ 7.429333, 7.406273, 7.542752, 7.433932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.97, "volume": 2148206, "typical_volume": 1482219.45, "trend": 7.17484, "fair_value": 4.749607, "relative_strength": 0.860634, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.641817, "energy": 4.397664, "activity_lines": [ 7.298, 7.333455, 7.487717, 7.423996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }