{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b701089e-dd54-4c8c-81d4-c3a7711d7587", "symbol": "CUERVO", "name": "Becle, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.91, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 19.468, "architecture_energy": 36.987, "architecture_maturity": 7.989, "architecture_confidence": 42.351, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.55, "rotation_up": 47.66, "upward_expansion": 38.71, "deceleration": 30.63, "rotation_down": 14.26, "downward_expansion": 47.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.364, 15.031636, 14.675172, 14.875871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.95, "trend_reference": 15.56305, "distance_from_trend": 0.024863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.594615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.325357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133771, "excess_performance": -0.079104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.392031, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8893497, "relative_activity": 1.046792, "balance": 1.392031, "dry_up": 1.064453, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043357, "annualized_volatility": 0.282071, "from_high_reference": -0.34442, "from_low_reference": 0.223588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.56305, "fair_value_reference": 24.594615, "structural_low": 13.035431, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.049202, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.07172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096905, "worst_return": -0.137333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074589, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.063261, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.030995, "worst_return": -0.226021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.226301, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.114776, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.051998, "worst_return": -0.326704, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.133608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.8, "volume": 10199371, "typical_volume": 11382784.85, "trend": 16.100896, "fair_value": 25.096828, "relative_strength": -21.022987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.603409, "energy": 14.843709, "activity_lines": [ 14.656, 14.489091, 14.425187, 14.972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.79, "volume": 8028094, "typical_volume": 10984863.45, "trend": 15.920159, "fair_value": 24.941618, "relative_strength": -19.819692, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.874205, "energy": 13.180592, "activity_lines": [ 14.701333, 14.583091, 14.445034, 14.887426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.56, "volume": 9053227, "typical_volume": 10093411.05, "trend": 15.768936, "fair_value": 24.768034, "relative_strength": -15.364602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.204049, "energy": 16.635768, "activity_lines": [ 14.999333, 14.788364, 14.544015, 14.86419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.95, "volume": 8893497, "typical_volume": 8495956.2, "trend": 15.56305, "fair_value": 24.594615, "relative_strength": -12.325357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.46801, "energy": 36.987271, "activity_lines": [ 15.364, 15.031636, 14.675172, 14.875871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }