{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b702d1dc-1d06-453b-b9a1-7c40137b36e7", "symbol": "600303", "name": "Liaoning SG Automotive Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.673, "architecture_energy": 34.778, "architecture_maturity": 43.382, "architecture_confidence": 63.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.1, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 15.26, "deceleration": 65.96, "rotation_down": 49.63, "downward_expansion": 67.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.626667, 2.625818, 2.849381, 2.962409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 3.094667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.460897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.765062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13354, "excess_performance": -0.090337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079334, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193851, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137154301, "relative_activity": 0.992624, "balance": 0.500102, "dry_up": 1.072238, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138131, "annualized_volatility": 0.554229, "from_high_reference": -0.316176, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.094667, "fair_value_reference": 3.460897, "structural_low": 2.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.024242, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": 0.017476, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.859459, "worst_return": -0.239389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.071875, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092486, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.325153, "worst_return": -0.241158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084765, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.868098, "worst_return": -0.25974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 136305217.9, "trend": 3.110333, "fair_value": 3.474487, "relative_strength": -16.740406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.845324, "energy": 47.745791, "activity_lines": [ 2.543333, 2.620727, 2.868905, 2.983075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 137154301, "typical_volume": 138173465.9, "trend": 3.094667, "fair_value": 3.460897, "relative_strength": -15.765062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.672982, "energy": 34.777593, "activity_lines": [ 2.626667, 2.625818, 2.849381, 2.962409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }