{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b70b4f93-822d-4bf9-989f-35daa2c51bd3", "symbol": "AKBA", "name": "Akebia Ther", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.744, "architecture_energy": 21.076, "architecture_maturity": 58.101, "architecture_confidence": 66.842, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.05, "rotation_up": 29.76, "upward_expansion": 20.89, "deceleration": 52.48, "rotation_down": 37.03, "downward_expansion": 56.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.1713, 1.186787, 1.170097, 1.205457 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9099, "trend_reference": 1.24949, "distance_from_trend": -0.271783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.743882, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.384924, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.345396, "excess_performance": -0.532849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478233, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.543849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046107, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345396, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37939190, "relative_activity": 1.833602, "balance": 0.676699, "dry_up": 0.87194, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199878, "annualized_volatility": 0.781547, "from_high_reference": -0.735494, "from_low_reference": 0.105992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.24949, "fair_value_reference": 1.743882, "structural_low": 0.8227, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.006494, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.01542, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.071613, "worst_return": -0.72405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.111876, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.147658, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.576923, "worst_return": -0.782618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109375, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.010989, "worst_return": -0.795288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.384181, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035336, 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"fair_value": 1.750357, "relative_strength": -36.383649, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.734639, "energy": 25.068496, "activity_lines": [ 1.291333, 1.178976, 1.194889, 1.230591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.22, "volume": 9999094, "typical_volume": 19902025.2, "trend": 1.277493, "fair_value": 1.748049, "relative_strength": -39.399954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.757034, "energy": 25.360309, "activity_lines": [ 1.285333, 1.198071, 1.192914, 1.225935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.32, "volume": 10663289, "typical_volume": 19726704.15, "trend": 1.269827, "fair_value": 1.746126, "relative_strength": -32.668862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.197077, "energy": 27.03111, "activity_lines": [ 1.302667, 1.232438, 1.2007, 1.228678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9099, "volume": 37939190, "typical_volume": 20691068.1, "trend": 1.24949, "fair_value": 1.743882, "relative_strength": -54.384924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.744255, "energy": 21.075981, "activity_lines": [ 1.1713, 1.186787, 1.170097, 1.205457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }