{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b70ec0cf-8530-477a-a712-1838abae6b16", "symbol": "TON", "name": "Triton Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.749, "architecture_energy": 83.702, "architecture_maturity": 55.622, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 23.33, "upward_expansion": 19.5, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 66.06, "downward_expansion": 95.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002667, 0.003036, 0.003848, 0.004892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.006483, "distance_from_trend": -0.614396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.76758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.190572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.6875, "excess_performance": -0.751206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.614396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.76758, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.671906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.6875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.349009, "dry_up": 0.517064, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323077, "annualized_volatility": 1.157971, "from_high_reference": -0.821429, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006483, "fair_value_reference": 0.010756, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.026481, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.038699, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.473684, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.068242, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.1625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208619, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.029412, "worst_return": -0.473684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.003367, 0.003791, 0.004669, 0.005784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 7843019, "typical_volume": 4787464.45, "trend": 0.00715, "fair_value": 0.011077, "relative_strength": -66.186731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.928413, "energy": 84.046913, "activity_lines": [ 0.003033, 0.0035, 0.004364, 0.005472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 154274, "typical_volume": 4795178.15, "trend": 0.006833, "fair_value": 0.010913, "relative_strength": -66.552835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.112201, "energy": 78.492867, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.003245, 0.00409, 0.005172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4753094.3, "trend": 0.006483, "fair_value": 0.010756, "relative_strength": -67.190572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.749144, "energy": 83.70155, "activity_lines": [ 0.002667, 0.003036, 0.003848, 0.004892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }