{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7163b05-f519-4c34-a970-49224f55a8e2", "symbol": "SBA", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Short Boeing ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.768, "architecture_energy": 12.47, "architecture_maturity": 22.168, "architecture_confidence": 93.852, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.71, "rotation_up": 35.74, "upward_expansion": 29.44, "deceleration": 34.7, "rotation_down": 37.24, "downward_expansion": 29.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.633333, 253.827273, 253.557143, 255.819355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 236.5, "trend_reference": 255.316667, "distance_from_trend": -0.073699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 341.345231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.93342, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002119, "excess_performance": -0.049117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45, "relative_activity": 0.02564, "balance": 0.828463, "dry_up": 0.454545, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050903, "annualized_volatility": 0.32774, "from_high_reference": -0.348002, "from_low_reference": 0.04185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 255.316667, "fair_value_reference": 341.345231, "structural_low": 227.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031128, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009412, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.101728, "worst_return": -0.294953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157522, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.060411, "worst_return": -0.410517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.173029, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.285888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115044, "worst_return": -0.231014, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059761, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079767, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 326.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 142.8, "trend": 359.201667, "fair_value": 449.448795, "relative_strength": -21.349764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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452, "typical_volume": 1656.6, "trend": 255.916667, "fair_value": 342.398437, "relative_strength": -9.677103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.835331, "energy": 3.745693, "activity_lines": [ 254.533333, 254.418182, 255.259524, 256.175269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 265.0, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 1669.95, "trend": 255.8, "fair_value": 342.186257, "relative_strength": -8.674471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.497054, "energy": 14.439113, "activity_lines": [ 258.066667, 256.327273, 255.707143, 256.76129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 260.5, "volume": 2344, "typical_volume": 1754.7, "trend": 255.8, "fair_value": 341.833052, "relative_strength": -10.894417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.617713, "energy": 20.354099, "activity_lines": [ 259.466667, 257.281818, 255.730952, 257.064516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.5, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 1755.05, "trend": 255.316667, "fair_value": 341.345231, "relative_strength": -18.93342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.768208, "energy": 12.469584, "activity_lines": [ 252.633333, 253.827273, 253.557143, 255.819355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }