{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b72a1332-e9e5-4f96-80fb-dd76e962ebf1", "symbol": "RATE", "name": "Arrow EC Income Advantage Alternative Fund Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.558, "architecture_energy": 36.964, "architecture_maturity": 8.52, "architecture_confidence": 62.853, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.93, "rotation_up": 47.49, "upward_expansion": 74.72, "deceleration": 61.07, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 3.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.883621, 20.87663, 20.861114, 20.839023 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.92, "trend_reference": 20.813336, "distance_from_trend": 0.005125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.816608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.407765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005465, "excess_performance": -0.114956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.927711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19800, "relative_activity": 1.676545, "balance": 1.927711, "dry_up": 1.320914, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003126, "annualized_volatility": 0.014322, "from_high_reference": -0.000909, "from_low_reference": 0.023956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.813336, "fair_value_reference": 19.816608, "structural_low": 20.649356, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": 0.003875, "positive_rate": 0.807692, "directional_follow_through": 0.807692, "median_excess_return": -0.012886, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.020469, "worst_return": -0.016465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015236, "positive_rate": 0.882353, "directional_follow_through": 0.882353, "median_excess_return": -0.027311, "regime_survival": 0.941176, "best_return": 0.033987, "worst_return": -0.005881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0299, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033559, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.061723, "worst_return": 0.000118, "sufficient": true 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20.81744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.879038, "volume": 12400, "typical_volume": 11705.0, "trend": 20.792773, "fair_value": 19.75829, "relative_strength": -9.055132, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.231211, "energy": 24.195429, "activity_lines": [ 20.86832, 20.872095, 20.843871, 20.823546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.869078, "volume": 16300, "typical_volume": 11160.0, "trend": 20.799841, "fair_value": 19.777888, "relative_strength": -8.960236, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.117214, "energy": 25.765306, "activity_lines": [ 20.869687, 20.872477, 20.849139, 20.828469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.85, "volume": 13900, "typical_volume": 11435.0, "trend": 20.806566, "fair_value": 19.797024, "relative_strength": -8.226048, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.79507, "energy": 26.042655, "activity_lines": [ 20.866038, 20.868294, 20.85206, 20.831705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.92, "volume": 19800, "typical_volume": 11810.0, "trend": 20.813336, "fair_value": 19.816608, "relative_strength": -10.407765, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.558084, "energy": 36.964258, "activity_lines": [ 20.883621, 20.87663, 20.861114, 20.839023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }