{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b72b7427-5f82-4549-b868-44e02b91174b", "symbol": "SPRB", "name": "Spruce Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.658, "architecture_energy": 71.148, "architecture_maturity": 55.005, "architecture_confidence": 89.827, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.08, "rotation_up": 13.09, "upward_expansion": 15.94, "deceleration": 37.71, "rotation_down": 71.03, "downward_expansion": 91.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.804, 47.241636, 50.356929, 53.169731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.87, "trend_reference": 57.690333, "distance_from_trend": -0.187559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.960117, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.357594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.004026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352624, "excess_performance": -0.540078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.357594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.36004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213279, "relative_activity": 0.642118, "balance": 0.720341, "dry_up": 0.89337, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135631, "annualized_volatility": 0.704989, "from_high_reference": -0.804708, "from_low_reference": 5.695714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.690333, "fair_value_reference": 72.960117, "structural_low": 40.325, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.002189, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.04796, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 1.669947, "worst_return": -0.647356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.117142, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.098358, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.421053, "worst_return": -0.756015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.404065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.341945, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 14.877778, "worst_return": -0.835429, "sufficient": 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76.154379, "relative_strength": -29.318334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.934524, "energy": 29.649209, "activity_lines": [ 52.155333, 52.119, 54.786024, 57.535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.54, "volume": 448763, "typical_volume": 320665.45, "trend": 61.812, "fair_value": 75.366174, "relative_strength": -36.467632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.467713, "energy": 52.077549, "activity_lines": [ 49.206, 50.49, 53.535643, 56.280462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.08, "volume": 266622, "typical_volume": 328046.65, "trend": 60.39, "fair_value": 74.560597, "relative_strength": -36.703902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.188969, "energy": 74.328052, "activity_lines": [ 46.66, 49.013, 52.295738, 55.071946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.83, "volume": 258264, "typical_volume": 328683.15, "trend": 58.794333, "fair_value": 73.729379, "relative_strength": -37.983923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.660867, "energy": 77.468928, "activity_lines": [ 44.649333, 47.685091, 51.092929, 53.939043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.87, "volume": 213279, "typical_volume": 332149.0, "trend": 57.690333, "fair_value": 72.960117, "relative_strength": -36.004026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.658465, "energy": 71.148182, "activity_lines": [ 44.804, 47.241636, 50.356929, 53.169731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }