{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b72bc149-8064-4107-9831-a29a082e7507", "symbol": "XDNY", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.681, "architecture_energy": 31.165, "architecture_maturity": 51.418, "architecture_confidence": 89.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 38.91, "upward_expansion": 60.11, "deceleration": 85.1, "rotation_down": 26.07, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.9345, 22.936227, 22.691321, 22.337209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.754999, "trend_reference": 21.943732, "distance_from_trend": 0.082541, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.540922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.140505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095897, "excess_performance": 0.044662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082541, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.354262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.496145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39371, "relative_activity": 0.778877, "balance": 1.496145, "dry_up": 0.793204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033477, "annualized_volatility": 0.227289, "from_high_reference": -0.200445, "from_low_reference": 0.297922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.943732, "fair_value_reference": 17.540922, "structural_low": 19.285, "invalidation": "A 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0.071514, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267815, "worst_return": -0.271888, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.166622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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21.957521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.2325, "volume": 51351, "typical_volume": 63783.35, "trend": 21.583843, "fair_value": 17.324336, "relative_strength": 6.370501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.880397, "energy": 67.562758, "activity_lines": [ 23.179833, 22.970682, 22.398559, 22.071237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.165001, "volume": 46744, "typical_volume": 65084.9, "trend": 21.663607, "fair_value": 17.374743, "relative_strength": 0.32108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.516953, "energy": 34.608481, "activity_lines": [ 22.857334, 22.857864, 22.422345, 22.108731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.49, "volume": 31963, "typical_volume": 60600.15, "trend": 21.751887, "fair_value": 17.424948, "relative_strength": 0.386278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.001295, "energy": 27.005513, "activity_lines": [ 22.679834, 22.807955, 22.478893, 22.162047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.5525, "volume": 42303, "typical_volume": 53834.4, "trend": 21.840595, "fair_value": 17.478494, "relative_strength": -0.69418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.965245, "energy": 19.727955, "activity_lines": [ 22.5945, 22.7645, 22.533202, 22.213699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.754999, "volume": 39371, "typical_volume": 50548.45, "trend": 21.943732, "fair_value": 17.540922, "relative_strength": 4.140505, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.680984, "energy": 31.16541, "activity_lines": [ 22.9345, 22.936227, 22.691321, 22.337209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }