{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b72c8f5e-fcc5-4712-bd29-0f394ba35efb", "symbol": "TDTT", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST IBOXX 3 YR TARGET DURATION TIPS INDEX FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.946, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.985, "architecture_energy": 60.688, "architecture_maturity": 6.602, "architecture_confidence": 91.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.49, "rotation_up": 17.92, "upward_expansion": 12.55, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 60.86, "downward_expansion": 85.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.530232, 23.555737, 23.642973, 23.687152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.54, "trend_reference": 23.71855, "distance_from_trend": -0.007528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.491638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.446914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00724, "excess_performance": -0.132865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 660500, "relative_activity": 0.690043, "balance": 1.088397, "dry_up": 1.003955, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004562, "annualized_volatility": 0.022776, "from_high_reference": -0.02023, "from_low_reference": 0.008649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.71855, "fair_value_reference": 22.491638, "structural_low": 23.452401, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00148, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019632, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.015218, "worst_return": -0.008328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019896, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031833, "worst_return": -0.04242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01473, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.153199, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029129, "worst_return": -0.030779, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": -10.532876, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.625034, "energy": 65.914814, "activity_lines": [ 23.581451, 23.64605, 23.724849, 23.737255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.551649, "volume": 1016019, "typical_volume": 1041910.55, "trend": 23.725976, "fair_value": 22.43863, "relative_strength": -8.760369, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.886701, "energy": 73.391453, "activity_lines": [ 23.558614, 23.620646, 23.704374, 23.725938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.497063, "volume": 1247712, "typical_volume": 1038895.05, "trend": 23.723074, "fair_value": 22.456279, "relative_strength": -8.175311, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.161675, "energy": 78.676255, "activity_lines": [ 23.53004, 23.589864, 23.679929, 23.71117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.5318, "volume": 919661, "typical_volume": 997190.25, "trend": 23.721002, "fair_value": 22.47379, "relative_strength": -8.709171, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.674744, "energy": 72.969051, "activity_lines": [ 23.52386, 23.570313, 23.660422, 23.69883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.54, "volume": 660500, "typical_volume": 957186.95, "trend": 23.71855, "fair_value": 22.491638, "relative_strength": -11.446914, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.984732, "energy": 60.68769, "activity_lines": [ 23.530232, 23.555737, 23.642973, 23.687152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }