{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7312e3b-f3df-4c7c-abff-cb5afacaa535", "symbol": "SOC", "name": "Sable Offshore Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.854, "architecture_energy": 73.254, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.75, "rotation_up": 18.85, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 42.64, "rotation_down": 64.92, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.777333, 5.487636, 8.401524, 9.833828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.75, "trend_reference": 10.874667, "distance_from_trend": -0.563205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.992, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.720457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.180622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401763, "excess_performance": -0.527388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.563205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.720457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.661806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401763, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26700846, "relative_activity": 0.75644, "balance": 0.312664, "dry_up": 1.052724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.444183, "annualized_volatility": 1.384658, "from_high_reference": -0.840924, "from_low_reference": 0.649306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.874667, "fair_value_reference": 16.992, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.128348, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.740492, "worst_return": -0.665419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.302013, "worst_return": -0.219311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016467, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016467, "worst_return": 0.016467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.820863, "energy": 84.695685, "activity_lines": [ 5.986667, 8.720545, 11.134667, 11.516903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.35, "volume": 49401621, "typical_volume": 37600711.5, "trend": 11.385667, "fair_value": 17.277244, "relative_strength": -71.405651, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.158153, "energy": 90.972009, "activity_lines": [ 5.001333, 7.581455, 10.360238, 11.055613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.71, "volume": 31678580, "typical_volume": 36476838.9, "trend": 11.258333, "fair_value": 17.179063, "relative_strength": -67.669477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.172157, "energy": 88.090143, "activity_lines": [ 4.571333, 6.662364, 9.638667, 10.624925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.29, "volume": 40855275, "typical_volume": 36043871.7, "trend": 11.043667, "fair_value": 17.086899, "relative_strength": -62.58235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.269552, "energy": 85.398171, "activity_lines": [ 4.695333, 6.038182, 9.018333, 10.239871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.75, "volume": 26700846, "typical_volume": 35298017.75, "trend": 10.874667, "fair_value": 16.992, "relative_strength": -66.180622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.854079, "energy": 73.253535, "activity_lines": [ 4.777333, 5.487636, 8.401524, 9.833828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }