{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7350fb0-16e4-4c51-b53b-3a26a71ff1fa", "symbol": "WAT", "name": "Waters Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.112, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.413, "architecture_energy": 84.914, "architecture_maturity": 38.17, "architecture_confidence": 92.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.3, "rotation_up": 45.63, "upward_expansion": 75.5, "deceleration": 50.0, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6660.450195, 6660.450195, 6466.807622, 6247.585248 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6660.450195, "trend_reference": 6112.604736, "distance_from_trend": 0.089626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6142.08923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.617569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002485, "excess_performance": 0.057152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089626, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168859, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007477, "annualized_volatility": 0.432372, "from_high_reference": -0.113477, "from_low_reference": 0.311641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6112.604736, "fair_value_reference": 6142.08923, "structural_low": 5077.950195, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000197, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.115648, "worst_return": -0.123847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044834, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.096664, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.227646, "worst_return": -0.279161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.088631, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130564, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.217195, "worst_return": -0.317186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 6660.450195, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 156.85, "trend": 6112.604736, "fair_value": 6142.08923, "relative_strength": 4.617569, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.413443, "energy": 84.914382, "activity_lines": [ 6660.450195, 6660.450195, 6466.807622, 6247.585248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }