{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b737537d-6051-41ee-be58-9828ec3c42f2", "symbol": "2540", "name": "Lesi Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.163, "architecture_energy": 34.047, "architecture_maturity": 89.551, "architecture_confidence": 81.972, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.25, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 8.94, "deceleration": 51.92, "rotation_down": 39.42, "downward_expansion": 68.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.797667, 0.798727, 0.857476, 0.911505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.83, "trend_reference": 0.976167, "distance_from_trend": -0.149735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.52345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.966642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278261, "excess_performance": -0.26297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069453, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22500, "relative_activity": 0.011396, "balance": 1.069453, "dry_up": 0.180429, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168675, "annualized_volatility": 0.70021, "from_high_reference": -0.48125, "from_low_reference": 0.276923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.976167, "fair_value_reference": 1.52345, "structural_low": 0.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045361, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051854, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.148515, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.202659, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.163029, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.148438, "worst_return": -0.256881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.367188, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.288784, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.367188, "worst_return": -0.367188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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61.137523, "activity_lines": [ 0.802667, 0.862, 0.937381, 0.984581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8, "volume": 855000, "typical_volume": 1988460.0, "trend": 1.039, "fair_value": 1.54672, "relative_strength": -32.493217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.324293, "energy": 46.946376, "activity_lines": [ 0.792667, 0.842182, 0.919286, 0.967806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8, "volume": 185000, "typical_volume": 1967710.0, "trend": 1.022333, "fair_value": 1.540794, "relative_strength": -33.954085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.602603, "energy": 43.59716, "activity_lines": [ 0.788667, 0.824909, 0.90219, 0.952387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.805, "volume": 202500, "typical_volume": 1947585.0, "trend": 1.0065, "fair_value": 1.535, "relative_strength": -32.059592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.27323, "energy": 37.289307, "activity_lines": [ 0.789, 0.814182, 0.886571, 0.938366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.75, "volume": 1015000, "typical_volume": 1988460.0, "trend": 0.989833, "fair_value": 1.528867, "relative_strength": -34.40905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.111634, "energy": 35.988724, "activity_lines": [ 0.778, 0.796455, 0.867357, 0.921817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.83, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 1974460.0, "trend": 0.976167, "fair_value": 1.52345, "relative_strength": -28.966642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.162619, "energy": 34.046804, "activity_lines": [ 0.797667, 0.798727, 0.857476, 0.911505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }