{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b73c8d37-2020-4407-8102-06246d931fd1", "symbol": "ICICIPRULI", "name": "ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.022, "architecture_energy": 22.14, "architecture_maturity": 77.026, "architecture_confidence": 75.916, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.22, "rotation_up": 26.73, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 55.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 504.876666, 500.119089, 504.708083, 520.842742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 501.049988, "trend_reference": 551.265425, "distance_from_trend": -0.091091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 600.642396, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.857526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230752, "excess_performance": -0.187042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16581, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12679989, "relative_activity": 1.795474, "balance": 0.375082, "dry_up": 1.568442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056115, "annualized_volatility": 0.331321, "from_high_reference": -0.291101, "from_low_reference": 0.084172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 551.265425, "fair_value_reference": 600.642396, "structural_low": 462.149994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008515, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.002014, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.112843, "worst_return": -0.145126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002623, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012705, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137983, "worst_return": -0.115904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017771, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13364, "worst_return": -0.107034, "sufficient": false 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562.842091, "fair_value": 601.410763, "relative_strength": -10.588701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.26199, "energy": 30.703277, "activity_lines": [ 498.929995, 495.494827, 506.178918, 527.539785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 515.400024, "volume": 5378793, "typical_volume": 6713007.2, "trend": 557.412092, "fair_value": 601.01182, "relative_strength": -10.017808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.999233, "energy": 21.093372, "activity_lines": [ 505.106671, 499.085585, 505.964098, 524.479007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 501.049988, "volume": 12679989, "typical_volume": 7062196.55, "trend": 551.265425, "fair_value": 600.642396, "relative_strength": -12.857526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.022412, "energy": 22.140074, "activity_lines": [ 504.876666, 500.119089, 504.708083, 520.842742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }