{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b73e4717-8886-4837-8763-c270cb026d9c", "symbol": "UWC", "name": "UNDERWOOD FPO [UWC]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.218, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.787, "architecture_energy": 19.348, "architecture_maturity": 19.131, "architecture_confidence": 37.531, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.61, "rotation_up": 35.21, "upward_expansion": 39.65, "deceleration": 46.11, "rotation_down": 30.04, "downward_expansion": 13.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.054067, 0.054018, 0.052633, 0.051905 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.054, "trend_reference": 0.0526, "distance_from_trend": 0.026616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.907593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.163706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.505793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 688019, "relative_activity": 1.575427, "balance": 0.505793, "dry_up": 1.709949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062678, "annualized_volatility": 0.433465, "from_high_reference": -0.289474, "from_low_reference": 0.384615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0526, "fair_value_reference": 0.051003, "structural_low": 0.039, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057802, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.081154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.108851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22, "worst_return": -0.057692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050385, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12, "worst_return": -0.019231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.346154, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.276075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": 0.346154, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.045, "volume": 260000, "typical_volume": 558760.2, "trend": 0.0565, "fair_value": 0.077561, "relative_strength": -27.560206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.360873, "energy": 29.097705, "activity_lines": [ 0.046933, 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0.051632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.055, "volume": 86288, "typical_volume": 365321.1, "trend": 0.053667, "fair_value": 0.050849, "relative_strength": -3.712364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.860483, "energy": 43.448461, "activity_lines": [ 0.0542, 0.053091, 0.051176, 0.051703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.054, "volume": 859940, "typical_volume": 392079.95, "trend": 0.0533, "fair_value": 0.050875, "relative_strength": -5.579114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.195166, "energy": 37.629451, "activity_lines": [ 0.0544, 0.053491, 0.051557, 0.051725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.054, "volume": 840398, "typical_volume": 394213.25, "trend": 0.053067, "fair_value": 0.050933, "relative_strength": -5.6177, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.39962, "energy": 38.000083, "activity_lines": [ 0.054333, 0.053745, 0.051938, 0.05177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.054, "volume": 598712, "typical_volume": 420949.0, "trend": 0.052833, "fair_value": 0.050965, "relative_strength": -7.927857, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.337204, "energy": 23.364585, "activity_lines": [ 0.0542, 0.053909, 0.0523, 0.05183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.054, "volume": 688019, "typical_volume": 436719.1, "trend": 0.0526, "fair_value": 0.051003, "relative_strength": -10.907593, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.786834, "energy": 19.348264, "activity_lines": [ 0.054067, 0.054018, 0.052633, 0.051905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }