{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b74c069d-8538-4557-a03f-d13f37782bfb", "symbol": "D5BL", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Value UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.688, "architecture_energy": 67.573, "architecture_maturity": 58.653, "architecture_confidence": 87.767, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 59.28, "upward_expansion": 85.23, "deceleration": 64.08, "rotation_down": 26.4, "downward_expansion": 11.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.926666, 51.602363, 50.689452, 49.684699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.619999, "trend_reference": 48.4915, "distance_from_trend": 0.085139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.781007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.43063, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.004129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115658, "excess_performance": 0.051018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.43063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047006, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115658, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.393355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87486, "relative_activity": 1.28148, "balance": 1.393355, "dry_up": 1.507639, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019538, "annualized_volatility": 0.159824, "from_high_reference": -0.005105, "from_low_reference": 0.348885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.4915, "fair_value_reference": 36.781007, "structural_low": 42.700001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.0148, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.005305, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.074906, "worst_return": -0.085533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037016, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.031389, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144207, "worst_return": -0.039311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059314, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.036274, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.23533, "worst_return": -0.104189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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84.508918, "activity_lines": [ 51.313333, 50.811454, 49.535928, 48.679796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.119999, "volume": 120654, "typical_volume": 72653.75, "trend": 47.748, "fair_value": 36.334212, "relative_strength": 11.578312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.706164, "energy": 76.470755, "activity_lines": [ 51.317333, 50.964545, 49.794238, 48.912892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.110001, "volume": 79933, "typical_volume": 67126.4, "trend": 47.987833, "fair_value": 36.47402, "relative_strength": 9.876039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.60899, "energy": 61.297135, "activity_lines": [ 51.287333, 51.064363, 50.038833, 49.129796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.209999, "volume": 123630, "typical_volume": 67637.6, "trend": 48.241167, "fair_value": 36.62559, "relative_strength": 9.44351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.866235, "energy": 63.44573, "activity_lines": [ 51.584, 51.31509, 50.3605, 49.402193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.619999, "volume": 87486, "typical_volume": 68269.5, "trend": 48.4915, "fair_value": 36.781007, "relative_strength": 7.004129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.688217, "energy": 67.572813, "activity_lines": [ 51.926666, 51.602363, 50.689452, 49.684699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }