{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7511be3-b54c-4571-990b-4c7d67705000", "symbol": "CALT", "name": "Caltagirone SpA", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.866, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.285, "architecture_energy": 37.679, "architecture_maturity": 41.049, "architecture_confidence": 48.845, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.35, "rotation_up": 47.02, "upward_expansion": 70.64, "deceleration": 69.1, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 8.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.995333, 9.959636, 9.666522, 9.508093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.44, "trend_reference": 9.423669, "distance_from_trend": 0.107849, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.46744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.61424, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.167285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068584, "excess_performance": -0.102307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03959, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.61424, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040491, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068584, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263941, "relative_activity": 1.688914, "balance": 0.675215, "dry_up": 1.127109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061542, "annualized_volatility": 0.32718, "from_high_reference": -0.040441, "from_low_reference": 0.587162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.423669, "fair_value_reference": 6.46744, "structural_low": 7.835295, "invalidation": "A 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"energy": 60.584316, "activity_lines": [ 9.964667, 9.765455, 9.463362, 9.39144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.4, "volume": 70840, "typical_volume": 148423.7, "trend": 9.359421, "fair_value": 6.383223, "relative_strength": -6.004731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.547525, "energy": 30.128341, "activity_lines": [ 9.746, 9.741091, 9.47944, 9.395593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.06, "volume": 283467, "typical_volume": 150863.15, "trend": 9.396819, "fair_value": 6.423772, "relative_strength": -0.327659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.613117, "energy": 25.869093, "activity_lines": [ 9.799333, 9.827273, 9.557741, 9.440791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.44, "volume": 263941, "typical_volume": 156278.55, "trend": 9.423669, "fair_value": 6.46744, "relative_strength": 0.167285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.285452, "energy": 37.678963, "activity_lines": [ 9.995333, 9.959636, 9.666522, 9.508093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }