{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7537f9b-87c8-40b6-b2ec-c85f12cc32f0", "symbol": "XUEK", "name": "Xtrackers S&P Europe ex UK UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.311, "architecture_energy": 56.738, "architecture_maturity": 35.993, "architecture_confidence": 77.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 54.61, "upward_expansion": 79.19, "deceleration": 62.33, "rotation_down": 24.65, "downward_expansion": 8.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 7813.133333, 7780.772727, 7672.159394, 7570.682368 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7976.0, "trend_reference": 7473.450374, "distance_from_trend": 0.067245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6425.952411, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.417632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077334, "excess_performance": 0.026099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059874, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.926526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42443, "relative_activity": 1.084673, "balance": 1.926526, "dry_up": 0.634632, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020244, "annualized_volatility": 0.156013, "from_high_reference": -0.004742, "from_low_reference": 0.217265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7473.450374, "fair_value_reference": 6425.952411, "structural_low": 6659.697945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.007564, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.004385, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.086185, "worst_return": -0.105627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017921, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.005498, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.10978, "worst_return": -0.071777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067067, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.013776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129668, "worst_return": -0.163562, "sufficient": true }, 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61.542183, "energy": 58.301839, "activity_lines": [ 7733.733333, 7699.739355, 7567.079183, 7494.780966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7723.0, "volume": 14063, "typical_volume": 38061.9, "trend": 7434.348242, "fair_value": 6396.097988, "relative_strength": -0.29728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.945576, "energy": 46.306081, "activity_lines": [ 7724.8, 7713.4, 7595.02969, 7514.656394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7779.5, "volume": 22792, "typical_volume": 37760.4, "trend": 7452.749154, "fair_value": 6410.395392, "relative_strength": -0.785017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.604955, "energy": 42.615904, "activity_lines": [ 7737.833333, 7731.454545, 7625.926258, 7536.924249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7976.0, "volume": 42443, "typical_volume": 39129.75, "trend": 7473.450374, "fair_value": 6425.952411, "relative_strength": 1.417632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.311406, "energy": 56.738026, "activity_lines": [ 7813.133333, 7780.772727, 7672.159394, 7570.682368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }