{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b754d61d-6355-4401-afda-82b9fd311c8d", "symbol": "EGLA", "name": "EuroGroup Laminations S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.219, "architecture_energy": 47.432, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.132, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 19.7, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 69.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.002667, 0.993473, 1.033952, 1.146994 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.022, "trend_reference": 1.508617, "distance_from_trend": -0.322558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.960086, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.65474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -63.387075, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.710482, "excess_performance": -0.881373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.322558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335362, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.65474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.633871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.710482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.412576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2179037, "relative_activity": 1.053786, "balance": 1.412576, "dry_up": 0.935415, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089041, "annualized_volatility": 1.339936, "from_high_reference": -0.724677, "from_low_reference": 0.133038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.508617, "fair_value_reference": 2.960086, "structural_low": 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3.097727, "relative_strength": -67.670911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.773876, "energy": 69.707512, "activity_lines": [ 0.981733, 1.031591, 1.083407, 1.38619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.956, "volume": 2308666, "typical_volume": 2384869.35, "trend": 1.809517, "fair_value": 3.06537, "relative_strength": -67.593517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.882807, "energy": 70.016716, "activity_lines": [ 0.966633, 1.011055, 1.066276, 1.326363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.032, "volume": 1508646, "typical_volume": 2269316.45, "trend": 1.738717, "fair_value": 3.039882, "relative_strength": -64.075571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.989667, "energy": 67.632341, "activity_lines": [ 0.983133, 1.008318, 1.058464, 1.276201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 1827252, "typical_volume": 2178155.05, "trend": 1.663783, "fair_value": 3.01477, "relative_strength": -66.425672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.60275, "energy": 67.772227, "activity_lines": [ 0.9735, 0.992618, 1.044595, 1.225316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.015, "volume": 2222136, "typical_volume": 2100300.8, "trend": 1.587217, "fair_value": 2.987014, "relative_strength": -63.480021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.484, "energy": 60.251455, "activity_lines": [ 0.9902, 0.991736, 1.038536, 1.183459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.022, "volume": 2179037, "typical_volume": 2067818.25, "trend": 1.508617, "fair_value": 2.960086, "relative_strength": -63.387075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.218671, "energy": 47.432242, "activity_lines": [ 1.002667, 0.993473, 1.033952, 1.146994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }