{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b75db67b-9c44-4f0f-8287-842f9c4b38ea", "symbol": "000766", "name": "Tonghua Golden-Horse Pharmaceutical Industry Co,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.064, "architecture_energy": 79.467, "architecture_maturity": 25.799, "architecture_confidence": 84.017, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 9.01, "upward_expansion": 19.01, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 74.79, "downward_expansion": 92.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.556667, 18.037455, 20.236953, 20.901957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.08, "trend_reference": 21.967667, "distance_from_trend": -0.222494, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.74641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.763138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.335409, "excess_performance": -0.342808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.517852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87515132, "relative_activity": 0.996288, "balance": 0.937395, "dry_up": 1.330098, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143803, "annualized_volatility": 0.613739, "from_high_reference": -0.434437, "from_low_reference": 0.14324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.967667, "fair_value_reference": 18.74641, "structural_low": 14.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.056058, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.063844, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.19929, "worst_return": -0.060784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164921, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.114854, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.341373, "worst_return": 0.030429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.125654, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.377637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.479371, "worst_return": 0.024205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.249071, "energy": 81.222135, "activity_lines": [ 18.314, 20.622364, 21.719143, 22.131312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.05, "volume": 105132634, "typical_volume": 85446366.7, "trend": 22.693667, "fair_value": 18.598269, "relative_strength": -37.847817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.221129, "energy": 88.628588, "activity_lines": [ 16.72, 19.391091, 21.074191, 21.610237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 101868684, "typical_volume": 87310757.85, "trend": 22.314667, "fair_value": 18.671474, "relative_strength": -28.299836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.605939, "energy": 82.73474, "activity_lines": [ 16.383334, 18.646909, 20.639667, 21.239678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.08, "volume": 87515132, "typical_volume": 87841212.0, "trend": 21.967667, "fair_value": 18.74641, "relative_strength": -30.763138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.064307, "energy": 79.467024, "activity_lines": [ 16.556667, 18.037455, 20.236953, 20.901957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }