{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b761a6a4-9c62-4a51-b6b2-204cfbf22d00", "symbol": "GEG", "name": "Great Elm Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.605, "architecture_energy": 15.118, "architecture_maturity": 18.557, "architecture_confidence": 75.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.75, "rotation_up": 19.67, "upward_expansion": 50.22, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 37.97, "downward_expansion": 23.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.180667, 2.234818, 2.224643, 2.179753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.148167, "distance_from_trend": 0.028784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.046425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.422778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083333, "excess_performance": -0.10412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.318325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43982, "relative_activity": 0.932815, "balance": 1.318325, "dry_up": 0.439923, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111114, "annualized_volatility": 0.465839, "from_high_reference": -0.370352, "from_low_reference": 0.2273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.148167, "fair_value_reference": 2.046425, "structural_low": 1.8007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.005464, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.019903, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.167347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046875, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.096718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061111, "worst_return": -0.183673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015957, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.212047, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.216667, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047853, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.245812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.013298, "worst_return": -0.109005, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141509, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041509, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027907, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.04, "volume": 82502, "typical_volume": 135671.05, "trend": 2.102833, "fair_value": 2.205346, "relative_strength": -16.362123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.524963, 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2.042419, "relative_strength": -19.294673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.205194, "energy": 25.102162, "activity_lines": [ 2.314, 2.303636, 2.212095, 2.178086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.175, "volume": 11953, "typical_volume": 107299.45, "trend": 2.177833, "fair_value": 2.043669, "relative_strength": -15.392954, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.678401, "energy": 9.182869, "activity_lines": [ 2.251667, 2.286364, 2.215714, 2.177376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 11263, "typical_volume": 85051.1, "trend": 2.169167, "fair_value": 2.044887, "relative_strength": -13.52612, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.846341, "energy": 21.859892, "activity_lines": [ 2.196, 2.269364, 2.219214, 2.177516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 15771, "typical_volume": 55464.25, "trend": 2.156167, "fair_value": 2.045463, "relative_strength": -14.863785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.27591, "energy": 18.43118, "activity_lines": [ 2.169, 2.246545, 2.219333, 2.17628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 43982, "typical_volume": 47149.75, "trend": 2.148167, "fair_value": 2.046425, "relative_strength": -16.422778, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.604843, "energy": 15.118005, "activity_lines": [ 2.180667, 2.234818, 2.224643, 2.179753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }