{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b763bb11-18a2-4627-adf7-146f64d6eb56", "symbol": "301176", "name": "Ganzhou Yihao New Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.994, "architecture_energy": 23.971, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.015, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.71, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 51.81, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 42.98, "downward_expansion": 22.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.485333, 50.469817, 48.759857, 44.135096 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.799999, "trend_reference": 38.141666, "distance_from_trend": 0.305659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.095962, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.156221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 44.729743, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.08805, "excess_performance": 1.080651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.305659, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.156221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104888, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.447297, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.08805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61604230, "relative_activity": 1.400354, "balance": 0.551202, "dry_up": 1.529126, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.246741, "annualized_volatility": 1.067441, "from_high_reference": -0.392683, "from_low_reference": 1.152118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.141666, "fair_value_reference": 23.095962, "structural_low": 23.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065113, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.066955, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.289919, "worst_return": -0.096174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.145788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082002, "worst_return": -0.133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.072102, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061137, "worst_return": -0.083067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.580002, "volume": 71298933, "typical_volume": 39793576.55, "trend": 36.439667, "fair_value": 22.628974, "relative_strength": 50.931684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.079566, "energy": 44.224159, "activity_lines": [ 56.820666, 56.727454, 48.847666, 43.121634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.389999, "volume": 75826828, "typical_volume": 42412781.85, "trend": 36.911, "fair_value": 22.765962, "relative_strength": 16.555154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.188934, "energy": 22.689142, "activity_lines": [ 48.952, 53.92909, 48.51719, 43.247462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.189999, "volume": 60346654, "typical_volume": 43160619.35, "trend": 37.320667, "fair_value": 22.891474, "relative_strength": 17.583865, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.74965, "energy": 24.259411, "activity_lines": [ 43.7, 51.068727, 48.111047, 43.329978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.799999, "volume": 61604230, "typical_volume": 43991902.15, "trend": 38.141666, "fair_value": 23.095962, "relative_strength": 44.729743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.994155, "energy": 23.971194, "activity_lines": [ 44.485333, 50.469817, 48.759857, 44.135096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }