{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b764f3b5-db8e-4f91-aeb1-6e479ffe78d4", "symbol": "MARM", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MAX BUFFER ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.723, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.495, "architecture_energy": 64.927, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.216, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.23, "rotation_up": 69.64, "upward_expansion": 88.13, "deceleration": 58.89, "rotation_down": 21.57, "downward_expansion": 10.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.30462, 34.235971, 34.141777, 33.98346 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.41, "trend_reference": 33.751553, "distance_from_trend": 0.019509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.782809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082661, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.984821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036605, "excess_performance": -0.08902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002659, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.287356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45830, "relative_activity": 1.567735, "balance": 2.287356, "dry_up": 0.795917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005023, "annualized_volatility": 0.016925, "from_high_reference": -0.011775, "from_low_reference": 0.065675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.751553, "fair_value_reference": 31.782809, "structural_low": 33.13, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003581, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007452, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.015029, "worst_return": 0.002488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013599, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.010259, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018809, "worst_return": 0.013591, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041776, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027375, "worst_return": 0.027375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.918092, "energy": 60.164622, "activity_lines": [ 34.10254, 34.089187, 33.94705, 33.773752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.2167, "volume": 18310, "typical_volume": 45827.2, "trend": 33.583763, "fair_value": 31.699257, "relative_strength": -7.163603, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.198295, "energy": 64.295339, "activity_lines": [ 34.142913, 34.116544, 33.98975, 33.817332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.2337, "volume": 21844, "typical_volume": 44312.7, "trend": 33.626097, "fair_value": 31.720202, "relative_strength": -5.444836, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.626807, "energy": 65.411916, "activity_lines": [ 34.178873, 34.142144, 34.029429, 33.859263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.22, "volume": 12795, "typical_volume": 32209.95, "trend": 33.665763, "fair_value": 31.740693, "relative_strength": -4.742155, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.822076, "energy": 62.943339, "activity_lines": [ 34.200993, 34.161458, 34.063071, 33.89758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.2938, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 29944.3, "trend": 33.706887, "fair_value": 31.76145, "relative_strength": -5.3303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.589883, "energy": 67.873607, "activity_lines": [ 34.241567, 34.190373, 34.099202, 33.938098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.41, "volume": 45830, "typical_volume": 29233.25, "trend": 33.751553, "fair_value": 31.782809, "relative_strength": -7.984821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.494526, "energy": 64.926887, "activity_lines": [ 34.30462, 34.235971, 34.141777, 33.98346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }