{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b76881af-9768-46ef-8b24-6d6baf71f3f9", "symbol": "COFI", "name": "Capital One Financial Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.594, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.047, "architecture_energy": 59.436, "architecture_maturity": 17.888, "architecture_confidence": 50.304, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.61, "rotation_up": 67.98, "upward_expansion": 58.36, "deceleration": 28.62, "rotation_down": 19.54, "downward_expansion": 19.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.36, 179.662727, 173.29923, 170.64044 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 187.550003, "trend_reference": 170.717691, "distance_from_trend": 0.098597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.225379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.349437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001858, "excess_performance": -0.172389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.583333, "dry_up": 0.410163, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041453, "annualized_volatility": 0.283204, "from_high_reference": -0.154683, "from_low_reference": 0.223964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.717691, "fair_value_reference": 151.225379, "structural_low": 153.231673, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010437, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00938, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.116121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048202, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.095868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205835, "worst_return": -0.255257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11944, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211299, "worst_return": -0.048304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"direction": 37.242842, "energy": 67.761336, "activity_lines": [ 179.266669, 173.744546, 168.709934, 168.777384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 179.25, "volume": 316, "typical_volume": 609.35, "trend": 172.600321, "fair_value": 150.123177, "relative_strength": -17.624389, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.800144, "energy": 64.975528, "activity_lines": [ 179.490001, 175.525455, 170.05523, 169.144562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 179.899994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 433.15, "trend": 171.663571, "fair_value": 150.640588, "relative_strength": -16.789401, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.338663, "energy": 50.740612, "activity_lines": [ 179.609999, 177.066363, 171.371702, 169.615509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.550003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 301.1, "trend": 170.717691, "fair_value": 151.225379, "relative_strength": -15.349437, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.046543, "energy": 59.43582, "activity_lines": [ 182.36, 179.662727, 173.29923, 170.64044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }