{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b76b24bc-718c-46b4-808b-7679357d6e6a",
    "symbol": "PANL",
    "name": "Pangaea Logistic",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 62.24,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -24.027,
    "architecture_energy": 16.652,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.417,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.462,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 59.3,
        "rotation_up": 35.0,
        "upward_expansion": 25.46,
        "deceleration": 39.82,
        "rotation_down": 23.63,
        "downward_expansion": 48.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.435333,
        7.270364,
        7.361785,
        7.444319
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 7.42,
    "trend_reference": 7.599879,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.023669,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 6.119904,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212437,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.638617,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.137945,
    "excess_performance": -0.325399,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023669,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024998,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.212437,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09171,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046386,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.10817,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.137945,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.585761,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1725637,
      "relative_activity": 0.686166,
      "balance": 0.585761,
      "dry_up": 0.666978,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.098526,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.490215,
      "from_high_reference": -0.204635,
      "from_low_reference": 0.665567
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.599879,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.119904,
      "structural_low": 6.435,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.026585,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020215,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.407867,
        "worst_return": -0.086301,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.208587,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.137466,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.701406,
        "worst_return": -0.13886,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.196222,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.099759,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.443044,
        "worst_return": -0.230917,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.260823,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.141837,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.552836,
        "worst_return": 0.170862,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.231408,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.12069,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.08554,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.100935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024845,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.113402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.010044,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.265672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.216267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.118168,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-07-03",
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        "return": -0.084605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.094964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 6.077492,
        "relative_strength": -9.567279,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "direction": -54.355527,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 2889452.15,
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        "fair_value": 6.085282,
        "relative_strength": -4.795472,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.056485,
        "energy": 55.147678,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.918,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 1775568,
        "typical_volume": 2829257.25,
        "trend": 7.543576,
        "fair_value": 6.095396,
        "relative_strength": 4.947923,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -40.204688,
        "energy": 24.173802,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.61,
        "volume": 1508702,
        "typical_volume": 2606820.15,
        "trend": 7.5772,
        "fair_value": 6.105577,
        "relative_strength": 3.139457,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.425428,
        "energy": 13.125937,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.352,
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          7.454461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.42,
        "volume": 1725637,
        "typical_volume": 2514897.65,
        "trend": 7.599879,
        "fair_value": 6.119904,
        "relative_strength": -4.638617,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.027062,
        "energy": 16.651602,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.435333,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}