{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7721e51-77ae-4d92-9658-5f80257d4366", "symbol": "600743", "name": "Beijing Huayuan Xinhang Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.852, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.567, "architecture_energy": 18.103, "architecture_maturity": 8.519, "architecture_confidence": 64.237, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.33, "rotation_up": 22.15, "upward_expansion": 15.05, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 48.21, "downward_expansion": 42.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.147333, 2.149636, 2.263048, 2.246022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.26, "trend_reference": 2.191, "distance_from_trend": 0.031492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.845449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.331395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.177083, "excess_performance": 0.220287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031492, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325829, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053314, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137660295, "relative_activity": 0.447919, "balance": 0.431529, "dry_up": 0.466281, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099387, "annualized_volatility": 0.653949, "from_high_reference": -0.359773, "from_low_reference": 0.276836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.191, "fair_value_reference": 1.845449, "structural_low": 1.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024027, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.079268, "worst_return": -0.112994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.067929, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259887, "worst_return": -0.02439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180791, "worst_return": -0.158537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.158537, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.074293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.497175, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028249, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095, 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"fair_value": 1.835641, "relative_strength": -2.525371, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.913752, "energy": 42.917393, "activity_lines": [ 2.108667, 2.199636, 2.300524, 2.251054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 148147379, "typical_volume": 304325705.65, "trend": 2.177667, "fair_value": 1.838397, "relative_strength": -1.606183, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.447538, "energy": 44.722213, "activity_lines": [ 2.083333, 2.154545, 2.27881, 2.242796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 152094726, "typical_volume": 307478671.25, "trend": 2.182333, "fair_value": 1.842179, "relative_strength": 2.932841, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.696808, "energy": 36.571341, "activity_lines": [ 2.096, 2.139273, 2.266143, 2.241011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.26, "volume": 137660295, "typical_volume": 307333034.55, "trend": 2.191, "fair_value": 1.845449, "relative_strength": 5.331395, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.56697, "energy": 18.103377, "activity_lines": [ 2.147333, 2.149636, 2.263048, 2.246022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }