{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7745369-a034-4ca9-8d4c-096a270cbb6b", "symbol": "GCC", "name": "WISDOMTREE TRUST ENHANCED COMMODITY STRATEGY FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.947, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.218, "architecture_energy": 36.831, "architecture_maturity": 30.859, "architecture_confidence": 50.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.17, "rotation_up": 67.64, "upward_expansion": 70.36, "deceleration": 62.35, "rotation_down": 9.23, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.323533, 23.912682, 24.135863, 24.089542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.5906, "trend_reference": 23.847787, "distance_from_trend": 0.031148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.80459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.615883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106688, "excess_performance": -0.018937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 312681, "relative_activity": 1.428663, "balance": 0.968312, "dry_up": 1.204734, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0301, "annualized_volatility": 0.130676, "from_high_reference": -0.072014, "from_low_reference": 0.309566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.847787, "fair_value_reference": 18.80459, "structural_low": 21.665, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.014808, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.004025, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.098031, "worst_return": -0.132453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02965, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013689, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.150605, "worst_return": -0.126607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049967, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011359, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.119034, "worst_return": 0.004931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.923829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.7503, "volume": 202490, "typical_volume": 241063.4, "trend": 23.36489, "fair_value": 18.532517, "relative_strength": -5.004173, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.192661, "energy": 55.114559, "activity_lines": [ 23.0461, 23.767531, 24.131115, 23.888641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.62, "volume": 146582, "typical_volume": 235401.25, "trend": 23.461409, "fair_value": 18.584902, "relative_strength": -2.722099, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.749399, "energy": 48.243189, "activity_lines": [ 23.149413, 23.641515, 24.085244, 23.9051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.1, "volume": 338119, "typical_volume": 236509.25, "trend": 23.5693, "fair_value": 18.638798, "relative_strength": 0.710014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.625066, "energy": 32.962006, "activity_lines": [ 23.44806, 23.633135, 24.080372, 23.946299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4, "volume": 232405, "typical_volume": 223606.75, "trend": 23.6613, "fair_value": 18.693163, "relative_strength": 2.390076, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.848419, "energy": 15.351229, "activity_lines": [ 23.825373, 23.70422, 24.10031, 23.999893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.22, "volume": 171480, "typical_volume": 215643.1, "trend": 23.759733, "fair_value": 18.747605, "relative_strength": 0.412546, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.142914, "energy": 27.79891, "activity_lines": [ 24.06602, 23.76476, 24.100534, 24.035938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5906, "volume": 312681, "typical_volume": 218862.7, "trend": 23.847787, "fair_value": 18.80459, "relative_strength": -1.615883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.218344, "energy": 36.830792, "activity_lines": [ 24.323533, 23.912682, 24.135863, 24.089542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }