{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b77902c2-2cea-40ff-8f95-f7396061cb48", "symbol": "BKNG", "name": "Booking Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.728, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 62.247, "architecture_energy": 70.067, "architecture_maturity": 20.379, "architecture_confidence": 73.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.58, "rotation_up": 76.23, "upward_expansion": 63.8, "deceleration": 21.49, "rotation_down": 16.81, "downward_expansion": 22.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 3359.757324, 3251.565807, 3118.635683, 3089.874695 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3665.0, "trend_reference": 3106.619735, "distance_from_trend": 0.179739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3216.504678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.371865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179898, "excess_performance": 0.234564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.179739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05928, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.209859, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033719, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.33878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.164799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1614, "relative_activity": 0.256339, "balance": 2.164799, "dry_up": 0.375575, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055008, "annualized_volatility": 0.421004, "from_high_reference": -0.13883, "from_low_reference": 0.392987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3106.619735, "fair_value_reference": 3216.504678, "structural_low": 2631.03623, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00931, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155681, "worst_return": -0.039084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.022029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15021, "worst_return": -0.019544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131914, "worst_return": -0.176308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012933, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-19", 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2991.660804, 3049.313065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3145.0, "volume": 3849, "typical_volume": 6323.4, "trend": 3183.715641, "fair_value": 3184.301141, "relative_strength": -13.760022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.562521, "energy": 23.597174, "activity_lines": [ 3128.960661, 3028.833257, 3005.97425, 3045.485997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3238.179932, "volume": 722, "typical_volume": 6269.5, "trend": 3160.404533, "fair_value": 3192.343259, "relative_strength": -10.518976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.607328, "energy": 39.043957, "activity_lines": [ 3182.723975, 3080.46705, 3027.418945, 3048.999823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3030.0, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 6257.0, "trend": 3130.154093, "fair_value": 3198.902175, "relative_strength": -15.080236, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.415381, "energy": 32.029759, "activity_lines": [ 3140.715983, 3088.093732, 3027.467699, 3040.586627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3340.0, "volume": 7048, "typical_volume": 6258.15, "trend": 3110.880851, "fair_value": 3206.953781, "relative_strength": -6.377652, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.950912, "energy": 47.619936, "activity_lines": [ 3201.069987, 3145.606055, 3058.202167, 3054.125072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3665.0, "volume": 1614, "typical_volume": 6296.35, "trend": 3106.619735, "fair_value": 3216.504678, "relative_strength": 3.371865, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.247053, "energy": 70.066996, "activity_lines": [ 3359.757324, 3251.565807, 3118.635683, 3089.874695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }