{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b77b6a43-6dfd-41ea-9166-2ba5cb77a264", "symbol": "4011", "name": "L'azurde Company for Jewelry", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.257, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.484, "architecture_energy": 35.971, "architecture_maturity": 24.929, "architecture_confidence": 86.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.66, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 3.95, "deceleration": 50.63, "rotation_down": 51.8, "downward_expansion": 74.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.887333, 10.965636, 11.106048, 11.216043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.16, "trend_reference": 11.337333, "distance_from_trend": -0.015642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.208654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.981719, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014134, "excess_performance": 0.017695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033673, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062386, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2212999, "relative_activity": 2.966, "balance": 1.062386, "dry_up": 1.464418, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040667, "annualized_volatility": 0.234175, "from_high_reference": -0.179412, "from_low_reference": 0.08666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.337333, "fair_value_reference": 13.208654, "structural_low": 10.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.0187, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.011643, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.154098, "worst_return": -0.138805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006135, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.019024, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.175061, "worst_return": -0.234568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056303, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.019941, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.215434, "worst_return": -0.239264, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 11.432667, "fair_value": 13.28221, "relative_strength": -4.295007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.668554, "energy": 33.511502, "activity_lines": [ 11.084, 11.118545, 11.25, 11.326731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.99, "volume": 605102, "typical_volume": 655548.55, "trend": 11.404333, "fair_value": 13.256432, "relative_strength": -5.687718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.498484, "energy": 33.488622, "activity_lines": [ 11.055333, 11.088909, 11.213714, 11.298172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.33, "volume": 542396, "typical_volume": 660215.25, "trend": 11.358667, "fair_value": 13.229065, "relative_strength": -9.264975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.277756, "energy": 67.526479, "activity_lines": [ 10.81, 10.943636, 11.118286, 11.22886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.16, "volume": 2212999, "typical_volume": 746122.35, "trend": 11.337333, "fair_value": 13.208654, "relative_strength": -3.981719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.483946, "energy": 35.970912, "activity_lines": [ 10.887333, 10.965636, 11.106048, 11.216043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }