{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b77f612e-0acb-4668-a3f3-311ce92a3605", "symbol": "MLP", "name": "Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.181, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.515, "architecture_energy": 14.927, "architecture_maturity": 31.281, "architecture_confidence": 79.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.07, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 50.78, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 28.81, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.165333, 17.429455, 17.171429, 16.912516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.32, "trend_reference": 16.736333, "distance_from_trend": 0.034874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.261987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051582, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.963599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011682, "excess_performance": -0.113943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051582, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.201168, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112796, "relative_activity": 1.381716, "balance": 2.201168, "dry_up": 1.044626, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091412, "annualized_volatility": 0.369707, "from_high_reference": -0.148476, "from_low_reference": 0.251508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.736333, "fair_value_reference": 18.261987, "structural_low": 14.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031721, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018473, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119245, "worst_return": -0.111933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.199245, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.082841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225139, "worst_return": -0.093432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088844, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.634717, "worst_return": -0.111933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.356125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.606792, "worst_return": 0.105458, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116829, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027572, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008736, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.16, "volume": 409726, "typical_volume": 162941.25, "trend": 12.144, "fair_value": 10.821948, "relative_strength": 30.001394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.858074, "energy": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.63722, "energy": 33.775099, "activity_lines": [ 17.771333, 17.627273, 16.959429, 16.794043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.84, "volume": 53758, "typical_volume": 82270.05, "trend": 16.705667, "fair_value": 18.211603, "relative_strength": -7.790822, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.735397, "energy": 21.164566, "activity_lines": [ 17.353333, 17.554727, 16.986048, 16.802559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.17, "volume": 80452, "typical_volume": 82520.15, "trend": 16.699667, "fair_value": 18.226667, "relative_strength": -5.112333, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.589785, "energy": 21.834795, "activity_lines": [ 17.141333, 17.520727, 17.042238, 16.832516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.34, "volume": 94105, "typical_volume": 82485.55, "trend": 16.720333, "fair_value": 18.243397, "relative_strength": -4.952569, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.894133, "energy": 20.261658, "activity_lines": [ 17.070667, 17.477273, 17.11119, 16.873828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.32, "volume": 112796, "typical_volume": 81634.75, "trend": 16.736333, "fair_value": 18.261987, "relative_strength": -7.963599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.514608, "energy": 14.927233, "activity_lines": [ 17.165333, 17.429455, 17.171429, 16.912516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }