{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b77fb3d3-b9e7-4cd9-a0a8-fba86c54812c", "symbol": "DAM", "name": "DATA MODUL Aktiengesellschaft Produktion und Vertrieb von elektronischen Systemen", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.96, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.785, "architecture_energy": 43.448, "architecture_maturity": 5.998, "architecture_confidence": 80.131, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.41, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 52.56, "rotation_down": 69.17, "downward_expansion": 54.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.893333, 28.232727, 28.624116, 28.53512 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.799999, "trend_reference": 28.512225, "distance_from_trend": -0.02498, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.861304, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.383493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037312, "excess_performance": -0.101951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 760, "relative_activity": 0.63577, "balance": 0.355411, "dry_up": 1.585871, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032097, "annualized_volatility": 0.17114, "from_high_reference": -0.097403, "from_low_reference": 0.246338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.512225, "fair_value_reference": 30.861304, "structural_low": 26.288449, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031496, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05779, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.075188, "worst_return": -0.122807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086197, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064649, "worst_return": -0.152672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102186, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.180132, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.080726, "worst_return": -0.224561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.51835, "energy": 18.839085, "activity_lines": [ 28.6, 29.088712, 28.83615, 28.704235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 1332.35, "trend": 28.62661, "fair_value": 31.386746, "relative_strength": 1.939142, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.712497, "energy": 25.464543, "activity_lines": [ 28.413333, 28.927273, 28.825188, 28.688159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0, "volume": 4516, "typical_volume": 1483.25, "trend": 28.597361, "fair_value": 31.205497, "relative_strength": -0.774829, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.998195, "energy": 32.514897, "activity_lines": [ 28.2, 28.694545, 28.777456, 28.647733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.6, "volume": 2286, "typical_volume": 1488.3, "trend": 28.54814, "fair_value": 31.021684, "relative_strength": -4.350387, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.472472, "energy": 44.336437, "activity_lines": [ 27.973333, 28.425454, 28.691066, 28.583387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 760, "typical_volume": 1195.4, "trend": 28.512225, "fair_value": 30.861304, "relative_strength": -6.383493, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.785001, "energy": 43.448349, "activity_lines": [ 27.893333, 28.232727, 28.624116, 28.53512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }