{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7804806-51eb-4d5a-a358-78386f12f2ed", "symbol": "600278", "name": "Orient International Enterprise, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.731, "architecture_energy": 44.031, "architecture_maturity": 89.995, "architecture_confidence": 67.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.66, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 18.73, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 46.03, "downward_expansion": 71.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.19, 6.170364, 6.402333, 6.724839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.28, "trend_reference": 7.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.12931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.790689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.907352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282286, "excess_performance": -0.239082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075204, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.233677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19414454, "relative_activity": 0.76225, "balance": 0.233677, "dry_up": 0.872233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05855, "annualized_volatility": 0.2096, "from_high_reference": -0.31961, "from_low_reference": 0.066214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.212667, "fair_value_reference": 6.790689, "structural_low": 5.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009051, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.001826, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152014, "worst_return": -0.092564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002302, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.308118, "worst_return": -0.113894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015754, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018769, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.150179, "worst_return": -0.084445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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70.253986, "activity_lines": [ 6.099333, 6.223091, 6.573857, 6.939269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.03, "volume": 26327730, "typical_volume": 26338106.2, "trend": 7.306, "fair_value": 6.802375, "relative_strength": -16.436848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.416252, "energy": 63.58059, "activity_lines": [ 6.066, 6.158727, 6.491524, 6.853398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.29, "volume": 19621806, "typical_volume": 25819551.55, "trend": 7.256667, "fair_value": 6.797107, "relative_strength": -12.817137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.768798, "energy": 55.205998, "activity_lines": [ 6.14, 6.160182, 6.443571, 6.787849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.28, "volume": 19414454, "typical_volume": 25469940.4, "trend": 7.212667, "fair_value": 6.790689, "relative_strength": -14.907352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.730724, "energy": 44.031491, "activity_lines": [ 6.19, 6.170364, 6.402333, 6.724839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }