{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b786aa86-04e7-49bf-bf18-921d9de56845", "symbol": "300003", "name": "Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.977, "architecture_energy": 25.245, "architecture_maturity": 94.983, "architecture_confidence": 75.28, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.31, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 21.81, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 24.38, "downward_expansion": 58.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.784667, 12.476477, 12.749781, 13.643811 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.14, "trend_reference": 15.013527, "distance_from_trend": -0.124789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.151154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.596854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265101, "excess_performance": -0.2725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150519502, "relative_activity": 1.312273, "balance": 0.848978, "dry_up": 1.578397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071178, "annualized_volatility": 0.319892, "from_high_reference": -0.391667, "from_low_reference": 0.158305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.013527, "fair_value_reference": 14.151154, "structural_low": 11.34416, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.001421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009815, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.344714, "worst_return": -0.214181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.076687, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.067393, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.276973, "worst_return": -0.274956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.074939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.505513, "worst_return": -0.41221, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -31.441738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.734651, "energy": 62.63375, "activity_lines": [ 12.050695, 12.137304, 13.238986, 14.300398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.58, "volume": 230116182, "typical_volume": 117718913.05, "trend": 15.334193, "fair_value": 14.298787, "relative_strength": -22.44969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.286972, "energy": 51.24832, "activity_lines": [ 12.278655, 12.161345, 13.064435, 14.116386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.11, "volume": 171605516, "typical_volume": 118030012.45, "trend": 15.208193, "fair_value": 14.242679, "relative_strength": -25.130365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.493588, "energy": 45.693617, "activity_lines": [ 12.284, 12.13109, 12.872693, 13.908373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.07, "volume": 171936200, "typical_volume": 118489688.9, "trend": 15.102527, "fair_value": 14.195754, "relative_strength": -17.442168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.006553, "energy": 35.327611, "activity_lines": [ 12.579333, 12.299658, 12.796951, 13.770425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.14, "volume": 150519502, "typical_volume": 114701396.6, "trend": 15.013527, "fair_value": 14.151154, "relative_strength": -20.596854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.97723, "energy": 25.245243, "activity_lines": [ 12.784667, 12.476477, 12.749781, 13.643811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }